488
FXUS64 KAMA 192243
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS.
- MILD, NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
FOR THE PANHANDLES. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST OVER 0 DEGREES CELSIUS, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AROUND OR UNDER 10 MPH)
THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE AIR
TEMPERATURE. AFTER THE COLDER START TO THE DAY, WINDS WILL TURN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL AID IN BRINGING BACK A WARMER
AIRMASS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER COOLER NIGHT IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THEY WILL BE TONIGHT.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES COME SUNDAY HAVE A 70
TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE TO REACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 19/13Z NBM.
FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY OR POTENTIALLY MONDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT VARIES
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A LARGE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PANHANDLES PRECIPITATION
FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. FIRST, OUT OF
THE NORTH. THEN EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
16-18Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
36
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 28 55 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 25 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 24 50 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 28 57 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 27 57 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 27 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 30 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 23 52 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 24 53 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 27 56 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 28 55 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 27 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 31 57 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 33 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...36
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