289
FXUS64 KAMA 200944
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
344 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
-MORNING LOWS TODAY WILL BE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING.
-WE MIGHT HAVE SOME COLDER MORNING LOWS IN MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING NEXT WEEK, BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD FRONT
TIMING.
-MILD, NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
-POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS NEXT WEEK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE HAVE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALONG THE HWY 60 IS A GOOD
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 28
(HARD FREEZE) AND AREAS THAT MAY JUST HAVE A LIGHT FREEZE. THAT
BEING SAID, MOST AREAS THAT DON'T FALL BELOW 28 ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON
IS OVER, THE FREEZE WILL LIKELY HELP CURE OUT THAT GRASSES ACROSS
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL HAVE MORE FIRE WEATHER
IMPLICATIONS MOVING FORWARD, AS FREEZE CURED GRASSES WILL BE LESS
RESISTANT TO ANY NEW RAINFALL THAT FOLLOWS. ALTHOUGH NO FIRE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST, THE POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION
FROM A RAIN EVENT TO A FIRE WEATHER EVENT MAY NOT TAKE AS LONG
NOW, FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES (EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST OF THE
HWY 60 LINE.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, WINDS WILL COME
AROUND THE CLOCK TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WE'LL STILL HAVE COOL
AIR IN PLACE BUT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S. WITH OVERALL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, WE'LL STILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A FREEZE, BUT THE THE THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY'S MORNING LOW. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLES THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE,
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RETURN CLOSE TO 60, WHICH
IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WARMER,
WITH THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THERE'S PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS (60-80%) THAT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS THERE'S
A VAST DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS. WE DO EXPECT A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK, BUT THE DIVERGENCE IN MODELS KEEPS THE
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FORECASTED HIGHS FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE
FORECAST. IT DOES SEEM A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAT SUNDAY WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT HAS A PRETTY WIDE SPREAD OF HIGHS THAT COULD BE IN THE LOW
40S TO POSSIBLY MID 60S. ADDITIONALLY, THE LONGEVITY OF THE COLDER
AIR WITH THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS IS THE ECMWF AI MODEL.
IT'S BEEN LOCKED ON TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THAT WOULD PUT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S, WHICH
IS WAY COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST OF UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. WILL NOTE THAT IT SEEMS LIKE MORE MODELS ARE FAVORING THAT
FRONT TO BE THROUGH ON TUESDAY, AND THAT WE PROBABLY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE NBM'S 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT STILL HOLDING OFF FROM
MAKING ADJUSTMENTS THIS FAR OUT ON DAY 7 HIGHS.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. FIRST, OUT OF
THE NORTH. THEN EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
16-18Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 54 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 53 27 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 50 28 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 56 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 56 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 54 31 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 54 33 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 52 26 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 53 26 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 55 32 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 54 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 53 32 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 56 32 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 57 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...36
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