316
FXUS64 KAMA 212028
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
228 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
- MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO POTENTIALLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
A RIDGING PATTERN IS BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THIS REGION. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS
LEADING TO A NICE FALL DAY OUTSIDE ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS.
WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LOWS
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS RH VALUES WILL
BE ABOVE 80 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY, SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
TOMORROW. TO SUMMARIZE, THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
BE VERY NICE DAYS OUTSIDE SO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICER DAYS
BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THE WARMING TREND WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THIS NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE APPROACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, WHICH ARE ONLY
A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD VALUES FOR NOVEMBER 24.
TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FIRST
WEAK PUSH OF COOLER AIR MAKES IT DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL, BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHERE WINDS MAY TURN
NORTHERLY AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY.
THE STRONGER FRONT ALONG WITH COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. JUST HOW LONG THAT
COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE IS THE BIG QUESTION. MOST
GUIDANCE WARMS THE CWA BACK UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A
WIDE VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL FORECAST
ELEMENTS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM THE 21/13Z NBM SHOWS A
15 TO 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
WEDNESDAY, WHICH LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC
TEMPERATURES THIS FAR OUT. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL US ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WAVE, IF IT DOES
PAN OUT LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST, COULD BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BASED ON THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS (IF ANY DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES) WOULD LIKELY BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE WHICH WOULD ALSO HAVE LESSER POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS ARE VERY LIKELY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 33 64 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 29 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 29 62 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 33 66 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 30 62 29 71 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 32 63 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 33 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 28 62 27 68 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 27 60 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 31 65 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 32 62 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 34 63 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 33 60 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 33 61 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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