222
FXUS64 KAMA 220853
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
-MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
-A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS DROP THROUGH THE REGION STARTING MONDAY,
WHICH SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
-LOW CHANCES (15-30 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW TO
OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IT
SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL! UPPER RIDGING WILL BROADLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE RIDGE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION, AND READINGS WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THERE ALSO IS ABOUT
A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GREATER THAN 80
DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CULIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AS ANOTHER WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. A SURFACE LOW
TAKES SHAPE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLES AND THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS DROPS SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KNOCK OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND HIGHS ON MONDAY BY ABOUT 20
DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND RETURN FLOW RESUMES FOR MID-WEEK, BRINGING BACK MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES, WHERE FREEZES ARE MORE PROBABLE. IN
ADDITION, THE WIND CHILL WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER ON A FEW
MORNINGS WITH VALUES AROUND 20 DEGREES AND SOME TEENS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL COME AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THANKSGIVING MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION,
ON WEDNESDAY, USHERING A COOLER AIRMASS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH THE
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. WITH IT
BEING ABOUT A WEEK OUT, THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL BUT THE
FACT THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THERE BEING
SOMETHING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME INDICATE IT BEGINNING AS
RAIN DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EVENING AND THEN A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FAVORED LOCATION WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS FOR BETTER
TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, LOW AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH SEEM MOST LIKELY, BUT MAYBE AT BEST AN
INCH OR TWO(WHICH IS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE). OF COURSE WILL MONITOR
GIVEN THE IMPACTFUL THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WON'T LAST LONG AND WE RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
CULIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING WEATHER DRY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH BOTH KDHT AND KGUY STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE
SURFACES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 63 33 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 62 32 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 61 30 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 66 34 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 62 29 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 64 32 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 60 36 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 61 28 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 60 27 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 65 32 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 62 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 62 36 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 59 34 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 60 34 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...11
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