178
FXUS64 KAMA 231133
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UPWARDS OF A
HALF INCH.
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BUSY TRAVEL WEEK
LEADING UP TO AND INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
ONCE AGAIN, FOG MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES TO START THE DAY, BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN
THEY WERE SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT, CHANCES HAVE DECREASED WITH
THIS FORECAST, BUT WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR THE AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
AND GULF OF AMERICA IS SURGING NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH CAPE IS BEING SHOWN IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO, THE BAND
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SO RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
MAINLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND A QUARTER INCH. THE POTENTIAL IS STILL
THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO EXCEED A HALF INCH OF RAIN, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE, WITH THE
23/00Z HREF SHOWING PROBABILITIES UPWARDS OF 30-50 PERCENT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY MID
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE RAIN.
PATCHY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN BE ONGOING ON MONDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL
BE HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE
SOUTH OR JUST BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN ON
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT LEADING
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO A COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY. COLDER AIR SHOULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THANKSGIVING INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S TO END THE WEEK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY REACH
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY
TO LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES, BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS VERY LOW AS
THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN VARIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. BUT THEY WILL NOT
LAST LONG. STARTING AROUND 16-18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TO NEARLY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES TO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN CHANCES MOVING THROUGH ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...29
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