106
FXUS64 KAMA 231705
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1105 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END BY THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
- WATCHING FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
THIS COMING WEEKEND, BRINGING WITH IT WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AS THE FAVORABLE FORCING
PROGRESSES EAST AND DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. GIVEN THE QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
ANTICIPATED SUNNY SKY, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER-50S IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TO UPPER-60S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S WITH SOME LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH THE FRONT
MOVING IN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE NAM, WHICH SOMETIMES
HANDLES THESE COLD FRONTS BETTER, IS AT LEAST FEW HOURS QUICKER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODELS. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL LEAVE THE HIGHS ALONE FOR NOW, BUT
THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE,
BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NBM HAS HIGHS IN THE UPPER-
40S TO LOW-50S, BUT IF THOSE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS VERIFY,
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM FURTHER INTO THE 50S THAN THE NBM IS LETTING
ON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS INTO
THE WESTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANYTHING, IN TERMS OF RAIN
FROM THE FIRST TROUGH; HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD BE
BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN AS THE FIRST
TROUGH DEPARTS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SECOND TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR BEING 6+ DAYS OUT, THERE IS
BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT AN
ARCTIC FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE, IF SO, SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
MVFR CEILINGS IS CURRENTLY PRESENT AT KAMA, AND EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS TO ARRIVE AT KDHT AND KGUY SOON. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
AT KDHT. CEILINGS AT KAMA AND KGUY WILL EITHER REMAIN AT MVFR OR
DROP TO IFR OR LIFR AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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