125
FXUS64 KAMA 251814
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1214 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NO WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED LEADING UP TO AND INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY FOR THE
PANHANDLES.
- A PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COMBINED PANHANDLES REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AIDED A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, THANKS TO CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TOMORROW WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY ONCE AGAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS 850MB TEMPS COOL. A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. EXPECT WED NIGHT TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ON THANKSGIVING
MORNING.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MARVELOUS
METEOROLOGICALLY SPEAKING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE THERE
WILL BE QUITE A SHOWDOWN OF THE FOOTBALL VARIETY IN THE LONE STAR
STATE FRIDAY, OUR WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES IS FAVORED TO BE FAR
LESS QUARRELSOME. A MINOR DISTURBANCE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
GENERATE A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO, SETTING UP
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS FOR THE PANHANDLES, AND SLIGHTLY MORE MILD
HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT ~10-15% CHANCES FOR STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
SE TX PANHANDLE LATER FRIDAY.
SATURDAY IS THE SLATED ARRIVAL DATE OF A STOUT COLD FRONT SET TO
SEND A PIECE OF POLAR AIR TO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. LONG RANGE
MODELS DEPICT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH SURGING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAY, PULLING DOWN OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY SUNDAY.
THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER LEAVES US WITH 40-60% PROBABILITIES FOR
HIGH TEMPS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES,
AND 10-40% CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. MONDAY WILL
HAVE SIMILAR, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES TO STAY BELOW 32
DEGREES. LOWS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUN THROUGH
TUE MORNINGS, AND IF WINDS ARE BREEZY ENOUGH, WIND CHILL VALUES
MAY GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THOSE DAYS ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO LOOM REGARDING THE TRACK, TIMING, AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A STRONGER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT MON-TUE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM IN SOME OVERNIGHT RUNS (ESPECIALLY THE 06Z GFS),
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LESS MOISTURE RETURN AND LOWER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW CHANCES WITH THE MORNING NBM FORECAST. HOWEVER,
12Z DATA IS BACK ON SIMILAR PROJECTIONS TO PREVIOUS TRENDS
SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE TO THE PANHANDLES AS A DEEPER
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW RATHER THAN A BROAD OPEN WAVE. THE LATTER
FORECAST WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO
GO IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURE PROFILES,
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW SNOW CHANCES FOR THE PANHANDLES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY MON-TUE. ENSEMBLE OUTPUTS STILL VARY
GREATLY, AND ANY SHIFT IN THE SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION WILL LEAD TO
CHANGES IN FORECAST EXPECTATIONS. BOTTOM LINE: THIS IS A VERY
TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLES IN THE SENSE
THAT WE PROBABLY WON'T HAVE VERY MUCH CONFIDENCE UNTIL LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SETTLING OUT OF THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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