704
FXUS64 KAMA 270521
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN A COLD AIRMASS THAT
IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL WAKE UP TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THANKFULLY BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THE
LIGHTER WINDS TODAY SHOULD HELP THE AFTERNOON FEEL WARMER THAN IT
DID YESTERDAY.
THE NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH. THESE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUITE
AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS, BY MIXING SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL SURFACE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY FRIDAY SOME FOG MAY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMING IN AND THE WINDS HELPING TO MIXING WARMER
AIR TO THE SURFACE, FRIDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY WILL COME FROM A LEESIDE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CO WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST EXPANDING NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SET UP WILL BE
PULLING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE, AND EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY, THE LEESIDE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIP SOUTHEAST, IN TURN
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WHILE CLEARING SKIES OUT
FOR A SHORT TIME WHILE THE SUN IS STILL OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN, WILL DETERMINE
HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. FOR NOW HAVE
AFTERNOON TEMPS PROGGED IN THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST WHILE THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH CLOUDS STAYING PRESENT LONGER ONLY GET TO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS WESTERN OK, THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FILLING INTO THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
FIRST. MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE LOOKING TO
HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. IF THE
FRONT COMES IN FASTER, EVEN AMARILLO COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
ONE OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SWINGING/DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, BRINGING THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. THIS SYSTEM ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH NO EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. FOR SATURDAY, BREEZY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE A BIT IN QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER EACH
DAY AS MODELS HAVE THE FRONT COMING IN QUICKER. THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE FRONT COMES IN WILL DETERMINE THE MAX TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL. THE HIGH MAY POTENTIALLY HIT AROUND NOON WITH A GRADUAL
COOL DOWN FROM THERE, OR LATER AROUND 2 OR 3 PM. THE CAA WITH
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST PUSHES OF COLD
AIR THIS SEASON. FOR REFERENCE, THE GFS HAS AN H85 TEMPERATURE
AROUND 8 DEGREES C OVER AMARILLO AROUND 6 AM, BY 6 PM THE H85
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 1 DEGREE C. THE NAM AND EC
HAVE THE TEMP FALL BELOW ZERO C BY 6 PM.
THIS COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS SOME REALLY COLD HIGHS/LOWS (30/TEENS) FOR SUN
AND MON. A SECONDARY H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
SUN REINFORCING THE COLD AIR. THIS SECOND SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY
BRING IN WITH IT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO LOSE QUITE A BIT OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CO BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE. THE NBM HAS
STARTED TO COME DOWN IN POPS FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. A 20 TO 30 POP IS NOW DOWN TO 10 TO 20 ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE NORTH AND EAST MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE 20S. WHICH
MATCHES UP WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. NBM PROBS ONLY HAVE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES.
THAT NUMBER DROPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES TO INCLUDE
AMARILLO WITH LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1" OF SNOW. THERE
ARE STILL MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT KEEP THE FA DRY FOR SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS TURNING AROUND THE CLOCK THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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