814
FXUS64 KAMA 280516
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1116 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AROUND THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PANHANDLES, POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AROUND THE SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
- BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN A COLD AIRMASS THAT
IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
BASED ON CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AS OF THIS WRITING,
THERE IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE
PACNW. WHILE THE FA IS CURRENTLY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AT THIS
TIME, THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO SWING DOWN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH
SENDING A ROBUST COLD AIRMASS DOWN INTO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BEFORE
THEN, THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH,
SOME MODELS DO SHOW AN H85 JET AROUND 40 KTS LEADING TO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO GUST TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS (60S TO WEST, 50S TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES),
MOST LIKELY THROUGH TUE. THE LEESIDE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST, IN CO,
THIS AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO THE BREEZY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
DIP SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FA LATE TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE IN WESTERN OK WITH A COLD FRONT
ENCROACHING ON THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW, AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, IF
NOT BY THEN. THE CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SHUNT AFTERNOON HEATING WITH MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE, FROM GETTING WARMER THAN THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JUST LIKE TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 25 MPH GUSTING 35 MPH, THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTH. ALSO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
H85 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES C FIRST
THING SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT BRINGING IN H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO AROUND
-6 TO -8 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE SUNSETS SAT EVENING WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED PANHANDLES WIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY MOISTURE WITH
IT. HOWEVER, SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO EXIST WITH A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL KEEP THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
A BIT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING A
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT WHEN THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES. BUT FIRST, WILL MENTION THAT THE HIGHS ON SUN ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
HIGHS ARE NOT EVEN EXPECTED TO GET WARMER THAN THE 30S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS ABOUT A DRY LOW
LEVEL. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND THE EC DO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIPITATION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. FOR
THAT REASON, NBM POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN GIVING MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH. EVEN THEN, QPF REMAINS WELL ON THE LOW END FOR THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. NBM SNOW PROBS HAVE REDUCED DRAMATICALLY WITH
ONLY A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURING 0.2" SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, WHILE FURTHER
SOUTH THERE IS A 1- 5% CHANCE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAYBE THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES STOP SHORT OF DROPPING
BACK INTO THE TEENS. EITHER WAY EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE IS PROGGED TO
HAVE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGH.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED
BY A COLD AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO START RISING BACK ABOVE 0 DEGREES C MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY. MAYBE EVEN WED, ALTHOUGH,
THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW WED INTO WED
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SOME LOW CLOUDS, POTENTIALLY EVEN FOG, ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR, POTENTIALLY IFR, AROUND SUNRISE. THE EXACT
TIMING AND EXTENT OF DEGRADATIONS IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE HEADING
TOWARDS THE 10Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, 18Z
ONWARD, EXPECT SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 35 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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