545
FXUS64 KAMA 281123
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
523 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AROUND THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PANHANDLES, POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AROUND THE SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
- BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN A COLD AIRMASS THAT
IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ON THE WARM
SIDE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG FOR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
HAVE KEPT IN PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT
IMPACTS ARE REALLY NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH THE ONLY MINOR CHANGES BEING
INCREASING SKY COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
BASED ON CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AS OF THIS WRITING,
THERE IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE
PACNW. WHILE THE FA IS CURRENTLY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AT THIS
TIME, THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO SWING DOWN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH
SENDING A ROBUST COLD AIRMASS DOWN INTO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BEFORE
THEN, THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH,
SOME MODELS DO SHOW AN H85 JET AROUND 40 KTS LEADING TO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO GUST TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS (60S TO WEST, 50S TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES),
MOST LIKELY THROUGH TUE. THE LEESIDE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST, IN CO,
THIS AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO THE BREEZY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
DIP SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FA LATE TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE IN WESTERN OK WITH A COLD FRONT
ENCROACHING ON THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW, AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, IF
NOT BY THEN. THE CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SHUNT AFTERNOON HEATING WITH MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE, FROM GETTING WARMER THAN THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JUST LIKE TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 25 MPH GUSTING 35 MPH, THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTH. ALSO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
H85 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES C FIRST
THING SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT BRINGING IN H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO AROUND -6 TO -8 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE SUNSETS SAT
EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED PANHANDLES WIDE BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
MOISTURE WITH IT. HOWEVER, SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO EXIST WITH A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL KEEP THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE FOR A BIT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING A
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT WHEN THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES. BUT FIRST, WILL MENTION THAT THE HIGHS ON SUN ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
HIGHS ARE NOT EVEN EXPECTED TO GET WARMER THAN THE 30S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS ABOUT A DRY LOW
LEVEL. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND THE EC DO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIPITATION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. FOR
THAT REASON, NBM POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN GIVING MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH. EVEN THEN, QPF REMAINS WELL ON THE LOW END FOR THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. NBM SNOW PROBS HAVE REDUCED DRAMATICALLY WITH
ONLY A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURING 0.2" SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, WHILE FURTHER
SOUTH THERE IS A 1- 5% CHANCE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO SUNDAY
NIGHT MAYBE THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES STOP SHORT OF DROPPING
BACK INTO THE TEENS. EITHER WAY EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE IS PROGGED TO
HAVE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGH.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED
BY A COLD AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO START RISING BACK ABOVE 0 DEGREES C MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY. MAYBE EVEN WED, ALTHOUGH,
THERE IS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW WED INTO WED
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND MVFR CEILINGS
ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KAMA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDHT
AND KGUY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY MID
DAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET AND WINDS WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE TO
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05
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