064
FXUS64 KAMA 290539
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR
TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN A COLD AIRMASS THAT
IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- THE PROBABILITY FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT HAS DECREASED, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE MAIN THING TO WATCH TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THE WAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES SOME TIME BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION TO HOW SOON THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AMARILLO. CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS AROUND 11 AM. HOWEVER, FOR THIS AREA, FRONTS TEND
TO COME IN A LOT QUICKER THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT USUALLY. DESPITE
THE TIMING MUCH OF THE AREA HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SATURDAY'S
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH BEING REACHED THIS EARLY AM JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALSO, INSTEAD OF THE LOW OCCURRING THIS MORNING, IT IS
LOOKING TO BE TONIGHT, BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT WARM UP GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FULL
FORCE OF CAA REACHES ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. HOW FAST THE
FA DROPS BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF, IS STILL
IN QUESTION. MODELS HAVE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING EVEN FASTER AFTER SUNSET. AMARILLO
COULD SEE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE SUN FULLY SETS, OR
IT CAN HIT 32 RIGHT BEFORE THE SUN SETS.
THE OTHER THING FOR TODAY, IS HOW HIGH THE WINDS ARE ACTUALLY GOING
TO GET BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTH WINDS ARE LOOKING TO PICK UP TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED, WITH THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY
REACHING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ KTS. GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY REACH
40 KTS (~45 MPH) WITH SOME LOCATION POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS UP 50
MPH (10- 15% CHANCE) BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT SHOULD NOT DROP TO L0 MPH OR LESS
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ANY
WARMER, AS THIS CAA WILL BE JUST TOO STRONG. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO NEAR MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE STRONG CAA, MUCH OF THE AREA IS SET TO SEE LOWS IN THE
TEENS TONIGHT, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE FA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY. NOW THE NBM IS ONLY
GIVING THE FAR EASTERN OK PANHANDLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WHICH
MANY OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING. THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS JUST NOT THERE. EVEN THE FAR EASTERN OK PANHANDLE
MAY ONLY GET A DUSTING TO 0.2" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLY MON.
THANKS TO WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH, H85 TEMPERATURES MAY WARM
EVER SO SLIGHTLY GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY MORNING'S. STILL REALLY COLD WITH A LOT OF LOWS AROUND 20.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
MORE OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE POTENTIALLY SEEING A HIGH IN
THE LOWER 40S. MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS RETURN BACK TO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS H85 TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C, OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE, WITH TUE AFTERNOON LOOKING TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S
AGAIN. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER
THE AREA EARLY WED KNOCKING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. THURSDAY ONWARD MODELS DIVERGE CAUSING A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MAX TEMP THU AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 25 KTS GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 35-39 KTS. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 40 KT PLUS WIND
GUST DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS OR ISSUE AN AWW FOR KAMA AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LLWS AT THE ONSET OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS WELL, WHICH WILL HIT KGUY FIRST AROUND 13Z FOR KGUY,
14Z FOR KDHT, AND 16Z FOR KAMA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO
SHIFT A BIT SOONER THAN THESE TIMES. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 14Z AND 21Z TODAY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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