240
FXUS64 KAMA 032333
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MOST
OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SMALL AREAS RECEIVING AN EXTRA 2 TO 4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. THIS COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER HAS ONLY JUST ARRIVED TO THE PANHANDLES, AND
ALREADY WE ARE SEEING PERSISTENTLY INCREASING ODDS FOR SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE SETTLING BACK IN OVER THE REGION TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, HELPING KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE PLAINS, BECOMING MORE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED UPON ITS ARRIVAL. THESE TRENDS HAVE CUMULATIVELY INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
STARTING WITH THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES THIS EVENING,
SPREADING/SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR IN ITS
WAKE.
SATELLITE AND MESOANALYSIS OBSERVATIONS SHOW A POSITIVELY TILTED
500MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
A PRONOUNCED CORE OF MOISTURE IN TOW. CAMS AS WELL AS REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN SHOWING A LARGER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT, LIKELY DUE TO BETTER LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM'S TRACK/EVOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR
SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING, WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DECENT SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. TO REITERATE, THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAVORS THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS COMPARED TO WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SNOW. HOWEVER, A FEW NARROW CORRIDORS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY, DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF ENHANCED 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WHEREVER THESE BANDS SET UP, SNOW
RATES WILL BE ENHANCED, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TOTALS IN THE
2-4" RANGE. CAMS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATIONS OF THESE BANDS FROM RUN
TO RUN, BUT HAVE INSISTED THAT THEY WILL EXIST. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES AS BEING
MOST FAVORED TO RECEIVE SUCH A FEATURE (30-60% CHANCE FOR >2"), BUT
THE SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
HEAVIER BANDING AS WELL (20-40% CHANCE FOR >2"). THE GRADIENT OF
SNOW TOTALS MAY BE QUITE SHARP WITHIN THESE BANDS, POTENTIALLY GOING
FROM LESS THAN AN INCH TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT
DISTANCE. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO BULLS EYES AS OF LATEST DATA,
COULD BE AS HIGH AS THE 4-6" RANGE ON A VERY LOCALIZED/OUTLIER BASIS
(<10% CHANCE).
REGARDLESS, THE CHANCES TO SEE ANY SNOWFALL TO EVEN A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
(40-80% POPS). GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH, AND
ESPECIALLY WITH MOST SNOW FALLING AFTER DARK, THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS SHOULD ACCUMULATE RATHER THAN MELT. FOR
THIS REASON, WE COULD EASILY SEE IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE, SO
PLEASE ALLOW YOURSELF EXTRA TIME IN THE MORNING AND TAKE IT EASY ON
THE ROADWAYS.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A LARGE CLOSED LOW SETTLING OVER THE
CANADIAN HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE
THIS TIME FRAME, LEADING TO NO MENTIONABLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND AS WELL, INCREASING BACK TO THE 50S AND
60S BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING EVERY
NIGHT.
HARREL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, LATEST RADAR WAS ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS
MOVE IN WITH TRAFFIC CAMERAS CONFIRMING THAT PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS SNOW. THIS SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTING BOTH KGUY AND
KDHT SOON WITH KAMA EXPECT TO BE NOT FAR BEHIND. AT THIS TIME
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY IFR TO VERY BRIEF PERIODS
LIFR FOR THE TERMINALS AS VISIBILITY COULD DROP BELOW 2 MILES.
HOWEVER, CAMS ARE STILL EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR NARROW BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO FORM DURING THE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THESE BANDS COULD IMPACT ALL THREE TERMINALS, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
FOR KDHT AND KAMA, BY CREATING LONGER LASTING PERIODS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL RANGING IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE. REGARDLESS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY,
WITH MOST CAMS SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE TERMINALS BY THE
AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ001-002-
006>008-011>013-016-017-317.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11
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