481
FXUS64 KAMA 061800
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1200 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
- BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE 20
TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM THIS PERIOD ARE THE
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS. TODAY, A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND AMPLIFY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS TODAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION LATER TODAY, AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WIND SPEEDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE LIGHTER OVERALL TODAY GIVEN HOW
RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OBSERVED WINDS LOWER AND MSL PRESSURE BROADER
THAN THE RAP FORECAST. WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BUT THEY MIGHT NOT GET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS FORECAST OR
FOR NEARLY AS LONG. LATER THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHERLY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE 60'S AREA WIDE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
TOMORROW, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES IN THE
40'S AND 50'S. THOUGH SKY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAY, WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH LIGHTER
OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FOR THIS
COMING WORK WEEK. OPERATIONAL AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BUILD AND LARGELY
STAY PUT AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING REIGNS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
GREAT LAKES, AND THE EASTERN US. THIS RESULTS IN A WESTERN US
WARM/EASTERN US COLD DICHOTOMY. THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE INFLUENCES
FROM BOTH REGIMES: WHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CAUSE
FOR SOME WEAK/MODIFIED COLD FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
CURRENTLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID-60S FOR THE ENTIRE
WORK WEEK WITH ESSENTIALLY NO HOPE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE
SOME EPISODIC HINTS THAT A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT COULD WORK INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
TAFS CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD. BREEZY,
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. AFTER A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS LESS LIKELY AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT; THEREFORE, MENTIONS HAVE BEEN REMOVED. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
FIRST 2,000 FT WILL INCREASE MARGINALLY, BUT IT SHOULDN'T BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IN THE AREA TONIGHT.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...55
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