382
FNUS53 KAPX 121921
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
..PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
DISCUSSION
UP AND DOWN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. BENEFICIAL RAIN CHANCES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. AN EARLY LOOK AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. MORE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILDER THAN NOVEMBER AVERAGES.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-130930-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
221 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (444).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (113).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.02- 0.14 IN.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (289).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.13- 0.20 IN.
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-130930-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
221 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30...EXCEPT 35-40 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (62).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (509).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (114).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.01- 0.12 IN.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (319).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.14- 0.38 IN.
MIZ020-025>027-130930-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
221 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (43).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES WARMER
NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (132).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.08- 0.31 IN.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......34 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (241).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.13- 0.19 IN.
MIZ031>033-130930-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
221 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (44).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (396).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.08- 0.36 IN.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......35 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (212).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.12- 0.19 IN.
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-130930-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
221 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (44).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (389).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (106).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.02- 0.18 IN.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (242).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.14- 0.33 IN.
EXTENDED
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
AJS
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