910
FXUS63 KAPX 141500
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
RAIN/ DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY RAIN BY MID-DAY
SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
AS EXPECTED, THIS WAS THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER SO FAR
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI. 1050MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF
THE EASTERN LAKES, AND SE WINDS/RETURN FLOW ARE UNDERWAY AND
INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN MI. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A
VERTICALLY STACKED, MATURE LOW OVER EASTERN KS.
A CIRRUS DECK OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI, WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW, IS FILTERING THE WEAK SUNSHINE OTHERWISE SEEN ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM S TO N
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE STILL SOME
LAKE STREAMERS IN THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW COLD AIR OVER LK
HURON, GETTING DRAWN UP INTO FAR EASTERN CHIPPEWA CO. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR A RESIDUAL FLURRY WITH THIS EARLY TODAY, BUT
INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY GET LOWER FROM HERE.
HI-REZ NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED PRECIP THREAT WILL BE
APPROACHING SW ZONES (MBL FIRST) LATE THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE FILLING WITH TIME, BUT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
STARTS TO WEAKEN WHEN IT REACHES LOWER MI. THIS SYSTEM WON'T
PRODUCE A LOT OF QPF, BUT SOME AREAS OF -FZRA/-FZDZ ARE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO HEADLINES
JUST YET, AND WILL AWAIT MORE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. BUT AT THIS
TIME, WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHWOODS.
AFORMENTIONED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM ONGOING SOUTHERLY FLOW. ENOUGH LIFT
WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED RAIN/ FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION/ INLAND OR SHORELINE. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM AND LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHEAST FLOW, LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF A ICE/ GLAZE WOULD BE THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE FORCING AVAILABLE. ALSO, NOTING THAT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING AND COULD INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
RAINFALL FREEZING ONCE IT MAKES CONTACT WITH THE ROAD,
ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR ELEVATED TERRAIN. IMPACTS WITH THIS TYPE
OF EVENT COULD BE SNEAKY AND IS SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE
APPROACHED WITH CAUTION IF PLANNING ON TRAVELING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20S TO LOW 30S.
CURRENT VARIABLE/ CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
FORECAST PATTERN:
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ON ITS PATH EASTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MI SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE SYSTEMS SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF PRECIP. HIGH-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW
SURFACE LAYER OF COLDER AIR (3F - 5F DEGREES COLDER THAN
FREEZING) WITH A WARM NOSE (>0C) REACHING UP TO AROUND 2 KFT.
FRAGMENTED SWATHS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND IN SOME SPOTS THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. BY MID DAY,
REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 30S FOR MOST AREAS
OF NORTHERN LOWER (SOME COASTAL SPOTS EVEN SEEING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 40S).
A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL GENERATE A
SOUTHERLY JET OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS JET WILL ADVECT DEEP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WILL REACH UP INTO THE SW GREAT LAKE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CAN. WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS CLOSER TO
THE CENTRAL LOWER PENISULA) WILL BE SEEN MOST OF MONDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY EVENING, AND RETURN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE STATE. GENERALLY WEST WINDS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5 TO -8C
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF LES SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES MID WEEK, BEFORE
CHANCES FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW RETURN EARLY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
MAINLY VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM
SW TO NE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS USHERED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE AFTER
03Z TONIGHT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ341-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...NSC
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