968
FXUS63 KAPX 150323
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1023 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX LIKELY OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING PERIODS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
- MIXED PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY PLAIN DRIZZLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON
- MILD WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY
- COLDER MID NEXT WEEK WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OUT OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
SHIELD AND RESULTING PRECIP DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
MAKING STEADY NORTHWARD PROGRESS THRU WISCONSIN AND INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN ATTM. UNKNOWN PRECIP HAS JUST BEGUN AT MBL...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPREAD THRU MUCH OF OUR
CWA PER LATEST NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
PRECIP TYPE WILL OF COURSE BE THE QUESTION...AND LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPS (WHICH ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING
ATTM) STILL POINT TOWARD A GENERAL LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. WILL CERTAINLY MAINTAIN ALL WINTER WX
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...
BUT AT THIS POINT...EXPECT PRECIP IN THAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH AND POSSIBLY FROZEN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS/PATTERN: STACKED LOW NEARING MCI THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN
FLOW UNDERWAY HERE IN NORTHERN MI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL DETERIORATE AND FILL AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES, BUT A CLOSED 500MB LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE SUNDAY.
FORECAST: WARM ADVECTION AND FILTERED SUNSHINE HAVE PUSHED TEMPS
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MI; A VERY NICE
REBOUND AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE ALSO CLIMBING, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY LAG, RANGING THRU THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20F IN MOST PLACES.
DEEPENING AND INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/THICKEN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WE HAVE A LOT
OF INITIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS, AND THAT WILL
FIGHT OFF ATTEMPTS TO GET PRECIP TO THE SURFACE FOR A WHILE. BUT
EXPECT INCREASING ASCENT TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THAT, WITH
PRECIP NEARING MBL AFTER 02Z/9PM. GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL EVAP
COOLING POTENTIAL EARLY IN THIS EVENT, SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE AT ONSET. AND THERE'S SOME SPOTS (BEAVER ISL AND EASTERN
UPPER MI) THAT COULD PICK UP A VERY THIN COATING. BUT A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND P-TYPE FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS WILL BE LIQUID. WARMING UP TODAY
HAS HELPED, BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUBSTANTIAL EVAP
COOLING POTENTIAL AT THE SURFACE. AND GROUND/SURFACE TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY CHILLY AFTER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE AIR
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F, WITH A FAIRLY
LENGTHY WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIP.
AGAIN, THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. AND WE HAVE INITIALLY DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. TOTAL
QPF WILL BE IN MOST PLACES WELL UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THERE'S A COUPLE OF SPOTS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS, WHERE MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION BANDS WILL BE ENHANCED AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ONE IS
IN THE SE (SE OF AN HTL-MIO LINE) SUNDAY MORNING. QPF OF AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH IS PROGGED HERE. (THOUGH ICE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, AS SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING
BY MIDDAY.) ICE ACCUMS WILL STILL APPROACH A TENTH OF AN INCH
HERE. THE OTHER IS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY OVER FAR NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND NEARBY LOCALES (BEAVER ISL, AND CHARLEVOIX/EMMET/
MACKINAC COS IN PARTICULAR). ICE AMOUNTS NEAR CVX/PLN/PETOSKEY
COULD ALSO APPROACH A TENTH OF AN INCH. BEAVER ISL IS TOO
MARINE, BECOMING RAIN FASTER. MACKINAC CO (ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN PART OF THAT ZONE) IS THE ONE PLACE THAT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO POTENTIALLY NEED AN ADVISORY...BUT FOR WHICH I AM NOT
DOING ONE YET.
WINTER WX ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MI.
PRECIP WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING DZ POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. HIGHS SUNDAY MID TO
UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
MILD AIR, IN A RELATIVE SENSE, WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW TEMPS FAIL TO REACH
FREEZING SOME LOCATIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S MONDAY. CERTAINLY IMPLICATIONS AS FAR AS THE SNOW PACK IS
CONCERNED. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY ON MONDAY DUE TO WAA/DPVA/APPROACHING JET STREAK @H500.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
SHIFTING WINDS FROM A MILD SOUTHERLY, TO A COOLER WESTERLY. THUS, A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A LITTLE BIT OF WESTERLY LES IS ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS OF RECENT (THEY GENERALLY ARE RARELY AS IMPRESSIVE),
WITH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEST INVERSION
HEIGHTS. THUS, NOT EXPECTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF
THIS TRANSITION, LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (AT
BEST, LIKELY NON-IMPACTFUL MOST AREAS) AT THIS TIME THROUGH TUESDAY.
TWO FEATURES TO WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ONE DIVING DOWN
FROM CANADA, ONE MOVING WEST-ISH TO EAST-ISH ACROSS THE PLAINS, OH
VALLEY & VICINITY (IN FACT THE MAIN SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THAT). BUT NEVERTHELESS, GENERAL CONSENSUS
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE AN ILL CONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO, AND THUS
NOT A HUGE STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION COMPONENT (THAT'LL BE
RESERVED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST). THAT BEING SAID, A COLDER
AIRMASS INTRUDES ~WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY (CMC&GFS 850TS ~-12
TO -18C) AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OR A
TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. WINDS SHIFT A GENERAL
NW-ISH & THUS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NW-NNW
SNOW BELTS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS AT THIS POINT, AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GREAT IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT. STILL, COLDER WITH THE
CHANCE FOR MORE LES SNOW MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE OUT OF MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TONIGHT...TRACKING ALONG THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER ON SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH
OF OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO MVFR/IFR ON SUNDAY AS THIS PRECIP
DEVELOPS. LLWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AROUND TVC AND MBL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MIZ016-017-021-022-027>029-033>036-041-042-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
026-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR
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