292
FXUS63 KAPX 150752
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
252 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE,
TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY PLAIN DRIZZLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
- SNOW CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MID WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS MORNING, MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WESTERN IL ATOP A FILLING/WEAKENING SURFACE
REFLECTION SITUATED NEAR THE IL/IA/MO BORDER. THIS SURFACE FEATURE
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER -- AND AS A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES -- SOME INITIALLY SNOW WHILE OTHERS HAVE GONE
STRAIGHT TO FREEZING RAIN. AGAIN, THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UPON
APPROACH, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT
BATTLE INITIAL DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU GO
WITH PRECIP TAKING LONGEST TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AND
THE EASTERN U.P., ESPECIALLY EASTERN MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
AND EVEN MORE SO TONIGHT WITH TODAY'S WINTRY WEATHER THREAT
DIMINISHING AREA-WIDE MIDDAY ONWARD.
FORECAST DETAILS: AS WAS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, PRECIP HAS BEGUN TO FALL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA -- LARGELY AS AN INITIAL MIX OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR,
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW AS PRECIP INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST. THIS COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A QUICK COATING ACROSS SOME
AREAS BEFORE AN INCREASINGLY WARM NOSE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RATHER
QUICKLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. PRECIP EXPECTED TO
TAKE LONGEST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES AND FAR NORTHEAST LOWER IN PLACES LIKE ROGERS CITY AND
ALPENA -- LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THESE AREAS MAY ONLY HAVE
A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS REMAIN OUT OF THE INHERITED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
IN THE ADVISORY AREA, THE MAIN IMPACT EXPECTED TO COME FROM FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING -- ON THE ORDER OF A GLAZE TO UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. SLICK TRAVEL IS ANTICIPATED,
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND SNOW-PACKED SECONDARY ROADS. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY INTO THIS ADVISORY,
WHICH IS THE ONE SPOT IN THE EASTERN U.P. THAT SEEMS MOST
FAVORED FOR SOME MINOR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMS.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP LIKELY
FALLING AS PLAIN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. GRUNGY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY LINGER RIGHT ON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
ACTUALLY WARMING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN A STRONGER
PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
FORECAST PATTERN:
MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE UP
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, POSSIBLY INCREASING PWATS TO 0.5" BY
MIDDAY MONDAY AS THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MI. LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL BE SEEN MOST OF MONDAY
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION
(POSSIBLY MID TO HIGH 40S WHERE LOCAL AFFECTS FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS YIELD ADDITIONAL WARMING). AT THIS TIME, DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MEETS
UP WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AS ITS PASSES OVER MI - RESULTING IN
THE BEST RAINFALL TOTALS RESIDING NEAR THE LK HURON COAST AND NEAR
SAGINAW BAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW PACK RESIDES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NW
LOWER, WHICH IS WHERE VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL (WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF < 0.10" FORECASTED). DUE TO THE MISALIGNED OF
THESE FEATURES, RAIN ON SNOW FLOODING ISN'T A CONCERN. WITH THAT
SAID, THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO
REACH NORTHERN MI MONDAY (0.3" TO 1" SPREAD OF PWATS). HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS JUST STARTING TO COME IN FOR MONDAY, AND SHOULD HELP
NARROW DOWN THE POSSIBILITIES.
A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER MONDAY EVENING, TURNING
WINDS WEST AND WILL ALLOW SOME LES TO BEGIN. SNOW CHANCES WILL
LINGER FOR THE TYPICAL SNOW BELTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVE OVER MI LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A CANADIAN SURFACE AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN
LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUE SNOW FOR TYPICAL SNOW BELT AREAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN NEAR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE OUT OF MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...TRACKING ALONG THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER ON SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
THEN TO MVFR/IFR ON SUNDAY AS THIS PRECIP DEVELOPS. LLWS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP AROUND TVC AND MBL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ016-017-021>023-027>030-033>036-041-042-095-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MLR
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