736
FXUS63 KAPX 160445
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT/MONDAY.
- LIGHT (NON-FREEZING) PRECIPITATION WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
MONDAY.
- COLDER AIR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO HANG OVER OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE...AS WE
REMAIN IN BETWEEN A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO
OUR EAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO AND THRU ONTARIO
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...GENERATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL HOLD OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: OVERCAST RATHER DREARY SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH FOG ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND A FEW
SPITS OF DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME THOUGH OVERALL PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS MINIMAL COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED GENERALLY INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER STILL FLIRTING WITH THE
33F MARK...AS WELL AS AT CIU. SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH (1044MB) OVER NEW ENGLAND. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. PARENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG
THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER HAVING WELL OUTRUN ITS SURFACE REFLECTION.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...BUT A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BIT OF THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO NORTHEAST LOWER
PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT/MONDAY: LOWER
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CREEPING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
LOWERING ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.
VIEW OUT THE OFFICE WINDOW HAS GOTTEN PROGRESSIVELY WORSE AS THE
AFTERNOON HAS WORE ON. FOG WILL PROBABLY BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING; INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER A GOOD
CANDIDATE FOR THIS AS LOW ST BASES CLIP THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAD/Y31
ALREADY AT OR BELOW ONE-HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND LOOKS SIMILAR OUT
THE WINDOW HERE ON THE HILL. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IN A BIT TO COVER THIS.
LIGHT (NON-FREEZING) PRECIPITATION WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY:
SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SOME BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.15 INCH) AND WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S ONCE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH & SFC LOW PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON MONDAY WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION
MOVING WELL EAST OF N MI. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, INCREASING AND SHIFTING LOW LEVEL
WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY. H850 WINDS ~30-40 KNOTS, WITH BREEZY
TO BRISK (WIND GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH) CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLDER AIR OVER THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY FOR W SNOWBELTS, BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL WITH MODEST INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THUS, THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING, EXPECT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF W SNOWBELTS, BUT VERY MINOR, AT BEST, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. BETTER WIND DIRECTION AND POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH
OF THE SOO IN CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT IN THE EXTENDED WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM. THUS, WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
PIECES OF ENERGY TO DIVE DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. EACH PIECE WILL PRESUMABLY PLUNGE N MI BACK
TO REALITY, INTO THE FROZEN TUNDRA-ISH WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 20S AND 30S FIRST, THEN TEENS AND 20S THEREAFTER. THE OVERALL
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT SNOW POTENTIAL, BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND CLIPPA
(NO TYPO) TYPE SYSTEMS. AS IS TYPICAL, NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS AT
PLAY WITH THE FIRST VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE; PROGGED
SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE, BUT BY NO MEANS EXCEPTIONAL (ALTHOUGH
THE LAST TWO EVENTS MAY HAVE PERTURBED THE TYPICAL). LOOKS
TRANSIENT IN NATURE AS WELL FOR MID WEEK. DETERMINISTIC AND ENS
GUIDANCE THEN PAINT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW
EVENT WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND THUS SWATH OF
SNOW. WHILE THIS PATTERN DOES NOT TEND TO PRODUCE BLOCKBUSTER
TYPE SNOWS (DO WE REALLY NEED MORE OF THAT AT THIS POINT?) THIS
WILL CERTAINLY TURN THE REGION MORE WINTRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
DEEP VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO AND THRU ONTARIO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...GENERATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG WILL HOLD OVER OUR ENTIRE
AREA OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT LEAST). SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ346-348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321.
UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR
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