045
FXUS63 KAPX 160731
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
231 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES TODAY WITH POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MID-MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- SNOW CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS MORNING, NORTHERN MI IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL WAVES. THE FIRST, NOW DOWNSTREAM,
ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S OCCASIONALLY INCLEMENT WEATHER. THE
SECOND STILL UPSTREAM OVER ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH RENEWED LAKE
INDUCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES BECOMING THE RULE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
FORECAST DETAILS: CERTAINLY QUITE GRUNGY OUT THERE AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF FOG (ESPECIALLY INLAND). HAVE REISSUED A
SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME TO COVER THIS. NOT A TON OF
CHANGE IN THIS EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY MID-MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.15" AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-
40S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS VEER
MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH OR SO. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO BE
THE RULE WITH AN INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OVER-WATER THERMAL GRADIENT
EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 03Z. LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR WHITEFISH PT AND IN
THE TYPICAL WEST FLOW LAKE BELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER TOWARD MIDNIGHT
AND BEYOND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 08-09Z. SOME
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOME PROBABLE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING --
AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF UP TO ~0.5" OVER THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH NORTHERN LOWER AND THE EASTERN U.P.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING BACK TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH WIND
CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
FORECAST PATTERN:
TUESDAY MORNING, WEST WINDS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
ALLOW LIGHT LES SHOWERS TO LINGER NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
EASTERN UPPER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND (HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS REMAIN NEAR
FREEZING). EARLY WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SNOW EXISTS, HOWEVER SINCE THE FORCING IS WEAK AND
MOISTURE IS MOSTLY CONTINENTAL - ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED
TO A FEW INCHES. SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTH WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO BREEZY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
A CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS CLOSER. A PROGRESSIVE WEAK UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES SNOW CHANCES INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLDER SURFACE HIGH
(1040 MB) SLIPS BY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURNING,
HOWEVER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
DEEP VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO AND THRU ONTARIO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...GENERATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG WILL HOLD OVER OUR ENTIRE
AREA OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT LEAST). SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SE AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MLR
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