222
FXUS63 KAPX 172336
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TOTALS OF 2-4" OR MORE EXPECTED ACROSS ANTRIM AND
KALKASKA COUNTIES.
- SYSTEM SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
- COLD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY SLIDE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. FORCING PROVIDED ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT BROAD
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS NEAR
WHITEFISH BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH A FEW TENTHS
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. STEEPENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CREATE
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH TIME,
AND EXPECTATION IS TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF LAKE CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND THE
EASTERN U.P. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS OF
THE TYPICAL SNOWBELTS, THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES -- WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW WILL BE
MOST LIKELY. LOCALIZED TOTALS EXCEEDING 4" WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE US-131/M-72
CORRIDOR IN THESE COUNTIES, MAINLY DOWN WIND OF ANY EXPOSED AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EJECT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY WANING ANY
APPRECIABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES. COULD BE A DECENT THUMP IN THE
EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO THIS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KALK AND ANT COUNTIES. TURNING COLDER AS WELL,
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS, EXCEPTION BEING E UP WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE SINGLE DIGITS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE NEXT WEEK FROM THE N PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DOWN INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THUS, SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT SOW EVENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. THE TRICKY PART WILL BE
ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC LOW AND
LOWER LEVEL HEIGHTS TRACK WHICH MAY RESULT IN CLOSER TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. OVERALL, ENS GUIDANCE
MEANS GENERALLY SHOW A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE, WITH LOW PROBS FOR
>3" (WHICH WOULD NOT CATCH SOME OF THE SMALL SUBTLETIES). COUPLING
DETERMINISTIC WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME ~1-3/2-4" ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA, BETTER CHANCE
ALONG/SOUTH OF M-32 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COASTS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR, DROPPING HIGHS
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS THIS
WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR COUPLED WITH MORE NORTHERN STREAM QUICK
HITTING PIECES OF ENERGY LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THIS
WEEKEND, MAINLY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, PERHAPS FOCUSING NNW-ISH
SNOW BELTS BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING THROUGH AND AFTER
THE HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT TURN NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...AJS
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