380
FXUS63 KAPX 181056
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
556 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED
2-3" AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF ANTRIM/KALKASKA/CHIPPEWA
COUNTIES.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AT THIS EARLY HOUR, AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS SITUATED UPSTREAM EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY, AIDING TO PROVIDE
INCREASED SUPPORT FOR RENEWED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORK
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD.
FORECAST DETAILS: GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS PARTS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY, AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OVER-WATER THERMAL
GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED, ALONG WITH SOME SYNOPTIC HELP FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING MID-LEVEL WAVE. MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY
ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME
AND PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75, NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS OF ANTRIM/KALKASKA
COUNTIES REMAIN PROGGED FOR LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 2-3"+. SOME
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP
UP THROUGH TODAY, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST POCKETS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL,
WILL FORGO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS POINT SIMPLY GIVEN A
LACK OF ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL. TRENDS WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER, FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE AT A LATER TIME
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
MID-LATE EVENING ONWARD, WE PRETTY QUICKLY LOSE ANY LINGERING
SYNOPTIC HELP WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASHING. STILL SOME LIGHTER
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ANTICIPATED DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES, BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WINDS RELAX AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
FORECAST PATTERN:
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND SEASONAL THURSDAY AS A
1032MB SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH. AN SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL CARRY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE DAKOTAS, TAKING A DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS PATH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THE IDEAL
SPOT FOR WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER HAS MODERATE CHANCES
OF SEEING 2 TO 6 INCHES IN THAT TIME PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE SNOW IS FALLING, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LES ENHANCEMENT OVER NE LOWER (SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST 24 HOUR TOTALS OF UP TO 8 INCHES CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF NE LOWER). AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
ON THE PATH OF THE LOW'S TRACK, BUT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW. A WEAKER SURFACE LOW COULD RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS - AND IN TURN
LESS LES ENHANCEMENT. CAMS ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW THIS TIMEFRAME,
AND REFLECT SLIGHTLY MORE DISAGREEMENT. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS.
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR THIS
WEEKEND, DROPPING DAY TIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN BELOW 0F FOR A FEW SPOT. SOME LES
CHANCES WILL LINGER DURING NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL START EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
LARGELY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS AT CIU AND NORTHWEST LOWER MI TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR TO BRIEFLY LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1-2". NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MJG
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