694
AXUS73 KAPX 192138
DGTAPX
MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-
097-101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-262100-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
438 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
.SYNOPSIS: RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND AN EASING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR.
.DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: THE FOLLOWING DESCRIPTION OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PUBLISHED ON DECEMBER 19, 2024.
DROUGHT CATEGORY D2...SEVERE DROUGHT: CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES
LIKELY...WATER SHORTAGES COMMON. AREAS INCLUDED IN DROUGHT
CATEGORY D2 INCLUDE PRESQUE ISLE...MONTMORENCY...ALPENA...
KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ALCONA...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...
MISSAUKEE...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...IOSCO...GLADWIN...AND ARENAC
COUNTIES IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
DROUGHT CATEGORY D1...MODERATE DROUGHT: SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND
PASTURES...STREAMS OR WELLS LOW...SOME WATER SHORTAGES DEVELOPING
OR IMMINENT. AREAS INCLUDED IN DROUGHT CATEGORY D1 INCLUDE
LEELANAU...OTSEGO...BENZIE...AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
DROUGHT CATEGORY D0...ABNORMALLY DRY: SOME LINGERING WATER
DEFICITS POSSIBLE. AREAS INCLUDED IN DROUGHT CATEGORY D0 INCLUDE
MACKINAC AND SOUTHEAST CHIPPEWA COUNTIES (INCLUDING DRUMMOND
ISLAND) IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...
CHARLEVOIX...AND ANTRIM COUNTIES IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
REPRESENTS AN END TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES.
.HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS
(JUNE-AUGUST) WAS GENERALLY FROM 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN JUNE WAS THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE
SUMMER WITH PRECIPITATION 150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINGS
STARTED TO DRY OUT IN JULY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THOUGH MOST
AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A
SIMILAR TREND WAS NOTED IN AUGUST. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL
MONTHS (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) STARTED OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER
(LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS LESS THAN 25
PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND OCTOBER (25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). BUT
NOVEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...MORE
THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ANTRIM/WESTERN OTSEGO/NORTHWEST
KALKASKA COUNTIES MAINLY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENT DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THERE WAS A SWATCH OF 1.50 TO
2.00+ INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS
REGION FROM NOVEMBER 3-6. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO
0.50+ INCH OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 13-14. ALL OF THIS CONTRIBUTED TO
THE WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT SAULT STE. MARIE (8.38 INCHES
LIQUID EQUIVALENT/+4.94 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL) AND THIRD SNOWIEST
NOVEMBER (42.0 INCHES SNOW/+26.0 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL). AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR PLUS BENZIE COUNTY RECEIVED 50 TO
100 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUMMER CAME OUT PRETTY MUCH NEAR NORMAL...
SEPTEMBER ENDED UP ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BOTH SAULT
STE. MARIE AND GAYLORD RECORDED THEIR WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD.
OCTOBER TEMPERATURES ENDED UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
TOP TEN WARMEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD AT SAULT STE. MARIE
(6TH)...ALPENA (8TH)...GAYLORD (6TH)...PELLSTON (2ND)...AND
TRAVERSE CITY (10TH). NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WERE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH TOP TEN WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD AT SAULT
STE. MARIE (6TH)...GAYLORD (6TH)...TRAVERSE CITY (6TH)...PELLSTON
(7TH)...AND ALPENA (8TH). MONTHLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR 12 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS...A STRING THAT BEGAN IN
DECEMBER 2023. FOR THE FALL MONTHS AS A WHOLE (SEPTEMBER-
NOVEMBER)...SAULT STE. MARIE RECORDED ITS WARMEST FALL ON RECORD
(+5.4 DEGREES) AS DID GAYLORD (+7.7 DEGREES). SECOND WARMEST FALLS
ON RECORD OCCURRED AT PELLSTON (+4.6 DEGREES) AND TRAVERSE CITY
(+4.9 DEGREES)...THIRD WARMEST AT ALPENA (+4.3 DEGREES)...AND
NINTH WARMEST AT HOUGHTON LAKE (+3.3 DEGREES).
SOIL MOISTURE IS NOW NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE STRAITS REGION...WHILE ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN SOIL MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED FROM BEING LESS THAN THE 5TH
PERCENTILE UP TO THE 20TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE. STREAMFLOWS ON
NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND ARE MOSTLY NEAR
NORMAL. A FEW GAGING STATIONS IN THE BOARDMAN...PLATTE...AND
MANISTEE RIVER BASINS WERE STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO
DISCHARGE.
.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: NO KNOWN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT
REGIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF DECEMBER 25-29 IS CALLING FOR HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK WHICH IS VALID FROM JANUARY THROUGH
MARCH 2025 IS PREDICTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HEADING DURING THE WINTER AND INTO EARLY SPRING THOUGH IT IS
LIKELY THAT AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE D2 DROUGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN
IN DROUGHT STATUS THROUGH MARCH.
.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED THURSDAY
JANUARY 2, 2025.
.RELATED WEB SITES: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:
US DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTPS://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
US DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT
ADDITIONAL WATER AND RIVER INFORMATION:
NWS OFFICE OF WATER PREDICTION (OWP): HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS): HTTPS://WATER.USGS.GOV
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE): HTTPS://WWW.USACE.ARMY.MIL
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION, THE USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER
CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES, THE
USDA, USACE AND USGS.
.CONTACT INFORMATION: IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
8800 PASSENHEIM ROAD
GAYLORD, MI 49735
PHONE...989-731-3384
W-APX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
JPB
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