035
FXUS63 KAPX 202353
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
653 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 4" POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF TRAVERSE CITY.
- COLD AIR RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO (FAHRENHEIT) SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
- MILD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION RETURNING RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES
ALONG WITH IMPACTING CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
LONGWAVE TROUGHING APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT, DRAPING NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGING FOLDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FURTHER UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT -- AS SEEN ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY,
NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COLD AIR WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY AN INITIALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SATURATED PROFILES EXTENDING ABOVE 800MB
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS WORKS IN
THE REGION, BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT CHANCES LATER SATURDAY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
EFFECT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHEST TOTALS
WILL COME ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF TRAVERSE CITY NEAR FIFE LAKE
WHERE LOCALIZED TOTALS AROUND 4" WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD
ORGANIZED BANDING SET UP OVER THIS AREA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR TIME
PERIOD. SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MARGINAL TOTALS AND EXPECTED
LOCALIZED NATURE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.P. WHERE LOWS ARE LIKELY TO DIP BELOW ZERO FOR MANY
AREAS. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
MIDLEVEL TROUGHING SPANNED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AMERICA
CONTINUES TO PULL COLD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
UPSTREAM RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CONUS, RETURNING A MILD
AIR MASS LATE MONDAY DUE TO A STRONG JET MAXIMA OF 180+ KNOTS OVER
THE PACIFIC. BESIDES THE FINAL CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT DUE AN EMBEDDED HEIGHT DISTURBANCE, THE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RESULTING IN
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LIKELY LOOSING ITS SNOWPACK BEFORE THE NEW YEAR.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/KEY MESSAGES:
-COLD AIR RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO (FAHRENHEIT) SATURDAY NIGHT: LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
HAVE COME TO AN END FOR NORTHERN LOWER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT
LESS FRICTION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FIRE OFF ONE MORE CHANCE
OF LES FOR PARTS OF MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCES OF AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR US-2, BUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MOST WIDESPREAD NOTICEABLE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF DECEMBER, WITH INTERIOR AREAS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO.
DAYTIME SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A RELIEF AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DRAIN INTO THE CWA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND ANOTHER NEAR-ZERO NIGHT BEFORE UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION
EASES TEMPS. THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION LIVES RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A NICE RELIEF AS THE
MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER, BUT A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF INTERIOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER HITTING 10 TO 12 BELOW WOULDNT
BE A SURPRISE.
-WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY: EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THIS
WEEKEND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE TO FIGURE OUT IF THIS SYSTEM CAN EFFICIENTLY TAP INTO
SOUTHERN-STREAM GULF MOISTURE AND DELIVER HIGH AMOUNTS OF WET
SNOWFALL OR NOT. A GENERAL 2 TO 4 TENTHS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET-HEAVY/GREASY SNOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ALONG WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
CANT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
-MILD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION RETURNING RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ALONG
WITH IMPACTING CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS: A WARMING
PATTERN BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA CHRISTMAS EVE WITH THE
MAJORITY OF AREAS HITTING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY, AND THEN
BUILDING TO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S LATER THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN LOW, BUT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME COULD RETURN SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS WOULD BE A THERMODYNAMIC MESS FOR THE WINTER
LOVERS OF THE NORTHWOODS AS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE
GREEN/BROWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ALL SITES COULD SEE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS KTVC, AND
KMBL TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT. ACTIVITY TAPPERS OFF LATER SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES, MAINLY AT KTVC.
BORDERLINE MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...AJS
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