463
FXUS63 KAPX 141740
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1240 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL 3-7" EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH LESS
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINTRY PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE MORE
ACTIVE AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
THEME OF INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A HEAVILY OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MAINE /
ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH A SOMEWHAT SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE MESOLOW OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH
AXIS. THIS AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION... FLIPPING
ONGOING WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALMOST NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RESULT WILL BE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY... AS THE ONGOING BANDS ARE
ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTH WITH THE WINDFIELD... AND LOOK TO
EVENTUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION EAST TO
THE US 131 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF BOYNE FALLS. THE MOST DOMINANT
BANDING WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE ANTRIM / KALKASKA COUNTY AREAS,
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN LEELANAU COUNTY AND THE OLD
MISSION PENINSULA. EVENTUALLY EXPECTING THIS AREA OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TO SHIFT AS WINDS BACK MORE NW TO WNW LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATING THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FAVOR THE ANTRIM / KALKASKA REGIONS... WITH MOST SNOW PROBABLY
OCCURRING AFTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SNOW BANDS REORGANIZE.
THUS, ALL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN INTACT / DROP OFF AS SCHEDULED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MERGE WITH EXPANSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW DRAPED ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY AS THE WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION.
HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FEATURE LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, HELPING TO BUILD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES -- COLD, WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERTOP
OF THE EXPOSED WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MAINTAINED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER TONIGHT -- AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME, SWITCHING WINDS FROM WEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
REFOCUS THE AREA OF HEALTHIEST LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DISPLAY RATHER MEAGER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AMPLE OVER-
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. SATURATION EXTENDING TO AROUND 800MB LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THIS COLOCATED WITHIN THE DGZ WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION WITH SLRS AROUND 20:1 OR HIGHER.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME OVERNIGHT,
SLIGHTLY CHANGING THE AREA OF HIGHEST EXPECTED TOTALS TO PLACES EAST
OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DURING THAT TIME. THROUGH THE PERIOD, AN
ADDITIONAL 3-7" IS ANTICIPATED FOR MANY AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LOOK TO SET UP THE LONGEST THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS STILL IN PLACE
BEFORE RISING ABOVE ZERO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
COLD, COLD AND MORE COLD. THAT IS THE ODDS ON FAVORITE WAY TO
DESCRIBE WHAT THE REST OF JANUARY WILL FEEL LIKE ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES.
THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT CROSS POLAR FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALL THE WAY DOWN FROM SIBERIA
STARTING THIS WEEKEND. THIS PIPELINE OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR THEN
LIKELY REMAINS OPEN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MONTH PER LONGER RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE MEANTIME, REASONABLY COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TAPPER OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING A
RENEWED SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THEREFORE, LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REGROUP
WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST
NORTHWEST THURSDAY. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
FAVORED AREAS WITH HEADLINES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER BREAK IN
THE ACTION IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH TEMPORARILY ENTICING
MILDER AIR NORTHWARD. THERE IS EVEN A GOOD CHANCE THAT MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL CRACK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY (BUT DON'T GET USED
TO IT BECAUSE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED).
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THEN SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BEHIND FRIDAY'S CLIPPER. THIS WILL FORCE OPEN THE GATES
TO BRUTALLY COLD AIR WITH A CONNECTION ALL THE WAY UP TO SIBERIA.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S ON INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS BY EVENING WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIRMASS LOOKS, SNOW FLAKES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE SMALL
SIDE WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS LEADS TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING ISSUES ALONG WITH AREAS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY. IN
ADDITION, BRISK WINDS AND THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES OF WELL BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
MVFR CIGS SET TO HOLD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT APN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR CIGS HOLD AT APN WITH MINIMAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS, THOUGH
A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
ANTICIPATION IS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS, PERHAPS IFR IN THE CORE OF ANY
SNOW SHOWERS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SITES SET TO
BE MOST IMPACTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ARE TVC AND MBL AS WINDS
FLIP MORE NW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE W TO WSW
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-
021-025>027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...HAD
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