006
FXUS63 KAPX 150257
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
957 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL 2-5"
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH LESS
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINTRY PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE MORE
ACTIVE AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO OUR
SNOWBELT AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-131 AND
MOSTLY WITHIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BACK
WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY REDIRECT SNOW BANDS EASTWARD...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH SNOWFALL
INTENSITY. WILL LEAVE ALL WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN TACT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SNOWFALL RATES WILL
DIMINISH AS SNOW BANDS BEGIN TO REACH FURTHER EAST INTO AREAS
ALONG I-75 LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
CURRENT OVERVIEW / PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD, MAINTAINING A FEED OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. CURRENT FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN YOOP IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE, AND HAS SHIFTED
MORE WNW IN NORTHERN LOWER. THIS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND UPTICK IN
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
ANTRIM AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES TO SHIFT FOCUS TOWARD THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION BY THIS EVENING... AND INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY. WINDS THEN BACK CONTINUALLY WITH TIME TONIGHT,
WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESPONDING AS SUCH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING CLIPPER WILL STUNT LAKE EFFECT TO
JUST SOME LINGERING DISORGANIZED FLURRIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD... WAVERING WITH INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE CONTINUALLY TRENDING LESS INTENSE / ORGANIZED
WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OVER ANTRIM AND CHARLEVOIX HAD BEEN
MODEST AT BEST UNTIL ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, AS THE TROUGH AXIS
HAS INDEED MOVED INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN ACTIVITY REALLY
BLOSSOMING, AND EVEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO OTSEGO, MONTMORENCY,
AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION SOUTH TO MANISTEE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH SOME SNOW ALSO PROBABLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO
WEXFORD COUNTY AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE LAKE CITY AREA.
NARRATIVE CHANGES A LITTLE THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHING AXIS CLEARS THE REGION, FLIPPING WINDS MORE NNW AND
INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. RESULT WILL BE ORGANIZING LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS STRETCHING FROM THE US 131 CORRIDOR AND WEST... AND
WITH A LAKE SUPERIOR TAP, THIS ACTIVITY COULD LOCALLY BE HEAVY. WHAT
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS SETUP IS THAT WINDS WON'T ENTIRELY
LOCK INTO PLACE, PERHAPS PREVENTING ONE PARTICULAR SPOT FROM GETTING
BLASTED WITH SNOWFALL. WITH WINDS LARGELY EXPECTED TO BACK OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BACK INTO
THE WESTERLY FLOW BELTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS TURN MORE SW AND ACTIVITY BEGINS
TO EXCLUSIVELY FAVOR THE LEELANAU TO MANISTEE LAKESHORES, ALONG WITH
EMMET AND THE STRAITS.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL GOES, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE ORDER OF 2-5", WITH PERHAPS SOME SPOTS SEEING 6"+ BY THE TIME
WE GET TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOST PRONE SPOTS FOR THESE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE THE ANTRIM / KALKASKA COUNTY AREA, WITH SMALL
(BUT NON-ZERO) POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST HILLS IN LEELANAU AND
BENZIE (SPOTS LIKE LAKE ANN, THOMPSONVILLE, MAPLE CITY, ETC.) TO
SNAG THESE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AS WELL. AS SUCH, SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW, ALONG WITH A
PREVALENCE OF SNOW COVERED ROADS CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO HINDER THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ROAD TREATMENTS. WITH THIS
BEING SAID, WILL RETAIN HEADLINES AS IS... KEEPING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BENZIE, LEELANAU, GRAND TRAVERSE, KALKASKA,
AND ANTRIM COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z / 7AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO 2" OR LESS
ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS, WITH MOST SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE STRAITS AND
SOUTH OF SLEEPING BEAR ON LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY BECOMING SNOW FREE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECTING DRY AND PRETTY CHILLY CONDITIONS TO LINGER...
SUBZERO TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS TONIGHT MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
IN THE LOWER 20S. X FACTOR WILL BE IN THE SAULT TONIGHT... WHICH HAS
POTENTIAL FOR A NNE DRAINAGE FLOW FROM UNMODERATED ARCTIC AIR
PREVALENT ACROSS ONTARIO THAT FROM A CONCEPTUAL STANDPOINT, COULD
SEND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES. MODELS ARE
BEARISH ON THIS TREND AT THIS TIME, SO WILL NOT MAKE THAT CHANGE AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING -- IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE SET TO DROP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE TREKS BY TO OUR NORTH WITH ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
CROSSING WEST TO EAST LOCALLY. BRIEF "WARM UP" FRIDAY BEFORE VERY
COLD AIR (BY FAR THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR) BEGINS TO
INTRUDE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOCUS WILL BE SET ON AN
INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY. RENEWED SLUG OF MOISTURE
AND INCREASING ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD PROVE TO BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE INITIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT VEERS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FOR
THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED 2-4" AMOUNTS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR OVER THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 00Z THU -
00Z FRI.
A BRIEF "WARM UP" ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FAVORED IN THE
MID-30S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AREA-WIDE. THIS WON'T LAST LONG, HOWEVER,
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER TREKKING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE RENEWED SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CONNECTION
ALL THE WAY TO SIBERIA. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS BEING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE SINGLE DIGITS. ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD WILL BE PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS -- WITH SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH ANY WIND/BLOWING SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TARGET OUR
TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHIFTING FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWARD TO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND THE STRAITS AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR/MVFR...
WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT...
SHIFTING TO THE SW ON WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-
021-025>027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MLR
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