648
FXUS63 KAPX 151417
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
917 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
- A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINTRY PATTERN FRIDAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE
AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWCASE ONGOING LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION, RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERLY FLOW SNOWBELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAQN.
PRETTY SHARP CUTOFF FROM A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGING REGIME
(ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE AND ATTENDENT COLD FRONT SET TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT) IS VISIBLE FROM SATELLITE, SHOWING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
CUTTING OFF IN PLACES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EVEN INTO THE
WESTERN YOOP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE
SCOURING MAY BLEED INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING A
WINDOW OR TWO OF BRIEF SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF THE STRAITS AND SOUTH OF
SLEEPING BEAR ALOLNG LAKE MICHIGAN, AS BACKING WINDS SHIFT THE
DIMINISHING, BUT NONETHELESS, STILL PRESENT LAKE EFFECT INTO THESE
AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TODAY, A SEASONABLE JANUARY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION, REINVIGORATING FORCING ALOFT, WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES BEHIND TROUGHING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MEANWHILE,
TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT,
SUPPORTING A CYCLONE THAT WILL TREK ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND SWING AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT, ADDITIONAL SNOW LATE -- WESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SUPPORTING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY WILL DEGRADE WITH TIME TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD, WORKING TO END LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS BY THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1" OR LESS
FOR MOST THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WHILE
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER 1"
OR LESS WITH THIS ROUND, THOSE CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE
HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ALBEIT SHALLOW, THIS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TOTALS OF 1-3" ACROSS COUNTIES NEXT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
THE WEATHER THIS WINTER HAS BEEN IN STARK CONTRAST TO LAST YEAR WHEN
WE HAD RECORD WARMTH ALONG WITH LOW SNOWFALL TOTALS. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH AT A
MINIMUM. IN THE MEANTIME, SHORT LIVED MILDER TEMPERATURES UPCOMING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOST SPOTS BREAKING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
FOLLOWED BY A TRUE ARCTIC BLAST ORIGINATING ALL THE WAY UP IN
SIBERIA. ALBERTA CLIPPER DRIVEN SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES
THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
DESPITE THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AND WANING AFTERNOON MOISTURE,
SOME AREAS (MAINLY IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN) COULD SEE
ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO YET
ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKING BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DO TWO THINGS, COAX
MILD AIR NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND DRAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT
THEN FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. IT'S LIKELY THAT THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
SMALL SNOWFLAKES WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LIMIT
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING HEADLINES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF INTO THIS
EVENING. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS AT NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TAF SITES COMING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AND GUSTS
TO 15-25 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...DJC
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