527
FXUS63 KAPX 151725
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1225 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
- A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINTRY PATTERN FRIDAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE
AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWCASE ONGOING LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION, RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERLY FLOW SNOWBELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRETTY SHARP CUTOFF FROM A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGING REGIME
(ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SET TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT) IS VISIBLE FROM SATELLITE, SHOWING
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT CUTTING OFF IN PLACES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND EVEN INTO THE WESTERN YOOP. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE SCOURING MAY BLEED INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING A WINDOW OR TWO OF BRIEF
SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF THE STRAITS AND SOUTH OF SLEEPING BEAR
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, AS BACKING WINDS SHIFT THE DIMINISHING,
BUT NONETHELESS, STILL PRESENT LAKE EFFECT INTO THESE AREAS.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TODAY, A SEASONABLE JANUARY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION, REINVIGORATING FORCING ALOFT, WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES BEHIND TROUGHING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MEANWHILE,
TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT,
SUPPORTING A CYCLONE THAT WILL TREK ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND SWING AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT, ADDITIONAL SNOW LATE -- WESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SUPPORTING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY WILL DEGRADE WITH TIME TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD, WORKING TO END LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS BY THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1" OR LESS
FOR MOST THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WHILE
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER 1"
OR LESS WITH THIS ROUND, THOSE CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE
HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ALBEIT SHALLOW, THIS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TOTALS OF 1-3" ACROSS COUNTIES NEXT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
THE WEATHER THIS WINTER HAS BEEN IN STARK CONTRAST TO LAST YEAR WHEN
WE HAD RECORD WARMTH ALONG WITH LOW SNOWFALL TOTALS. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH AT A
MINIMUM. IN THE MEANTIME, SHORT LIVED MILDER TEMPERATURES UPCOMING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOST SPOTS BREAKING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
FOLLOWED BY A TRUE ARCTIC BLAST ORIGINATING ALL THE WAY UP IN
SIBERIA. ALBERTA CLIPPER DRIVEN SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES
THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
DESPITE THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AND WANING AFTERNOON MOISTURE,
SOME AREAS (MAINLY IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN) COULD SEE
ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO YET
ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKING BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DO TWO THINGS, COAX
MILD AIR NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND DRAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT
THEN FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. IT'S LIKELY THAT THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
SMALL SNOWFLAKES WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LIMIT
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING HEADLINES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIMITED TO PLN
AND PERHAPS MBL WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON, AS W FLOW BACKS MORE SW
INTO THE EVENING. LARGELY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL GO FULL ON MVFR
LATER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE
REGION. ALL SITES EXCEPT APN WILL BE SEEING THAT LIGHT SNOWFALL BY
02Z, WITH APN EVENTUALLY SEEING -SN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL TRANSITION BACK TO MORE RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY,
WITH WINDS VEERING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING, WITH
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS HOLDING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...HAD
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