633
FXUS63 KAPX 151859
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
159 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.
- A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINTRY PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE MORE
ACTIVE AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
CURRENT OVERVIEW / PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMMENCING,
BACKING WINDS MORE SWERLY WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE RESPONDING AS SUCH, GIVING SIGNS THAT FOCUS IS
SHIFTING TOWARD THE STRAITS AND POINTS SW. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH TONIGHT, REINVIGORATING LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY, AND THUS BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT, COMPLETE WITH SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS, WINDS WILL FLIP NW THURSDAY MORNING, AND WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE IMPENDING MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM HEADED OUR
WAY. SW FLOW BEGINNING TO REALLY TAKE SHAPE, AS LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER HAS REALLY BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF TAPERING
IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO FOCUS ON
THE STRAITS (NAMELY, EMMET COUNTY) AND PERHAPS AROUND SLEEPING BEAR
AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION, LARGELY BEGINNING AFTER 00Z ACROSS NW LOWER, WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME... PROBABLY REACHING
EAST OF I-75 BY 04Z AND AROUND 07Z FOR SPOTS NEAR LAKE HURON. THE
MOISTURE STARVED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE CEILING ON
SNOW AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING TOTAL QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25" MAX. X FACTOR OF COURSE, WILL BE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT, BUT EVEN THEN, SIGNALS FROM GUIDANCE LARGELY LIMIT
HIGHER END ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MARGINAL ADVISORY AMOUNTS.
JUST NOT ENOUGH THERE TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
JUNCTURE, THOUGH THAT MAY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT THIS
EVENING.
COUPLED WITH A RENEWED SUPPLY OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY, WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME PLACES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE EASTERN YOOP
TO SEE 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE PLACES HOLDING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR 3"+ BEING THAT LEELANAU TO MANISTEE CORRIDOR, ALONG WITH EMMET
AND NW CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES, AND WEST OF I-75 IN MACKINAC COUNTY. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL PROBABLY WIND UP ON THE LOWER END OF THE 1-3"
RANGE, AND IT HONESTLY WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING FOR SPOTS SOUTH OF A
LAKE CITY TO ALPENA LINE TO TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT. GIVEN RATHER STRONG FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECTING THIS TO PROBABLY REACH
RELATIVELY FAR INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE LEADS TO MORE DISORGANIZATION OF BANDING WITH TIME. ALL
IN ALL, AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THOSE NW FLOW BELTS THRU 00Z FRIDAY, WITH POTENTIAL THERE FOR
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4" ACROSS THE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS OF ANTRIM, KALKASKA, CRAWFORD, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: BY THURSDAY EVENING, MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RISING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOLLOW
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY'S CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
WAA FOR FRIDAY IS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TREK BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW CHANCES. BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT, OUR DOWNWARD
PLUNGE COMMENCES INTO WHAT'S EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR AS THE INCOMING AIRMASS ORIGINATES ALL THE WAY UP IN
SIBERIA. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL AT
TIMES, EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRIGID COLD.
FORECAST DETAILS: BY THURSDAY EVENING, ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. A SHORT "WARM UP" FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE --
ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS
IN THE 20S MOST OF THE DAY.
~987MB LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TREK BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THIS YSTEM'S COLD FRONT CLEARING THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW LATER SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS, BUT GENERALLY PALTRY MOISTURE FIELDS
LEAVE QUITE A BIT TO BE DESIRED. WHAT SNOW SHOWERS DO DEVELOP MAY BE
A BIT SQUALLY AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT -- CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS FOR LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
COLD AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
SAGGING IN SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO THE LOW-MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE. LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR MONDAY'S HIGH WITH LOWS FALLING
BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME FEATURES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FALLING NEAR OR BELOW -15 F AT TIMES. LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DEFINITELY EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD -- RAMPING UP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WITH SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES, SMALL FLAKE SIZE SHOULD DOMINATE AND WITH JUST
ABOUT ANY WIND WILL LIKELY CREATE POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIMITED TO PLN
AND PERHAPS MBL WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON, AS W FLOW BACKS MORE SW
INTO THE EVENING. LARGELY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL GO FULL ON MVFR
LATER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE
REGION. ALL SITES EXCEPT APN WILL BE SEEING THAT LIGHT SNOWFALL BY
02Z, WITH APN EVENTUALLY SEEING -SN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL TRANSITION BACK TO MORE RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY,
WITH WINDS VEERING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING, WITH
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS HOLDING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...HAD
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