407
FXUS63 KAPX 170002
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1" TO
2"FORECASTED FOR TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH
1" OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
- WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND WELL
BELOW ZERO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORELINES OF MICHIGAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT. AFORMENTIONED TROUGHS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT HAS TRACKED THROUGH, TURNING WINDS MORE NW AS THE DAY
HAS PROGRESSED. NW FLOW LOOKS TO LOCK ON THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, INITIATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE TYPICAL NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND AHEAD OF A CLIPPER PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
SNOW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WNW
WINDS CONTINUING TO SHIFT MORE NW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS
LOOK TO LOCK IN WITH NW FLOW AND SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AN ADDITIONAL 1" TO 2" IS EXPECTED FOR THE NW SNOWBELTS
WITH GENERALLY AND INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF BETTER BANDING
SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING, BUT WITH THE SIGNATURES ON RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING MORE OF A CELLULAR COMPONENT TO THE LAKE
EFFECT, THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MENTION
NONETHELESS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MIX IN AS
WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION, EXPECTING GENERALLY 1" TO 2"
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. FRIDAY AS THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT
BEGINS TO DROP DOWN. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AND TURN SW AS HEIGHTS RAISE.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION, MAKING FOR SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
(UPWARDS OF 25- 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE). DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTING,
A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER IS OBSERVED WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL, FURTHER GIVING
CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTRODUCED ONCE AGAIN,
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
WITH 20S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE WITH FRIDAY'S
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR MOST AND UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
CURRENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT, LEAVING DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO
PULL AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ORIGINATING FROM SIBERIA.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY QUIET AS
SUBSIDENCE SETTLES INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND SATURDAYS CLIPPER. AS
A RESULT, WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO
CAN BE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT LAKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S,
CREATING A THERMAL GRADIENT OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES, LEADING TO
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE LONG TERM.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/KEY MESSAGES:
-WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND WELL BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. SINGLE
DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BESIDES LOCATIONS PROTECTED BY A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE EVENING WILL LEAD TO BRUTALLY COLD
LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK FALLING AT OR EVEN BELOW -15 FAHRENHEIT
FOR MOST INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
LUCKILY, PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WINDS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH WINDS, BUT WIND
GUSTS IN THE TEENS COULD DROP APPARENT T'S BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
"WARMING" TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
-LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORELINES OF MICHIGAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
SNOWFALL BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT. FLURRIES TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ROUGHLY AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE CLASSIC SNOWBELTS
OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASING TO +10,000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIR MASS. SNOWFALL SHOULD
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE REGION, DELIVERING MORE EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES HINT AT 24- HOUR
QPF TOTALS OF 0.15-0.35" FOR COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN,
NEAR WHITEFISH BAY, AND AREAS BETWEEN LITTLE AND GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY. TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATIOS OF 20:1 TO 25:1 WOULD
DELIVER TOTALS 4-6" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT BITTER
COLD AIR AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE SURFACE
COULD CREATE SMALLER CRYSTAL STRUCTURES OF COULOMBS, NEEDLES
OR PLATES. IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WOULD BE LESS A CONCERN WHILE LOW VISIBILITIES AND SLICK
ROADWAYS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THE BIGGEST IMPACT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUTS A CAP ON ANY SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OF
SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WITH LIGHT TYPE TWO LAKE
EFFECT HAVING THE SAME INERTIA OF A BOULDER ROLLING DOWNHILL,
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. CIU MOSTLY
MVFR, APN BECOMING MAINLY VFR, AND TVC/PLN/MBL SEEING A MIX.
BRISK NW WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND BREEZY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ341-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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