686
FXUS63 KAPX 161729
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1229 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES TODAY. HEAVIER SNOW TODAY ALONG NE LOWER MI
COAST.
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEGATIVE TEENS FOR WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
CURRENT FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES
TO DEPART EAST OF THE AREA WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING TO SET
IN. STEADIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS,
WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS AROUND 5" POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS/PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE NOW IN CENTRAL KY WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NE, REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING.
CLASSIC MATURE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE LOOK ON SATELLITE IMAGERY,
WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LK
HURON/LOWER MI.
FORECAST: SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOUR, IN NE LOWER MI IN PARTICULAR. ENHANCED DEFORMATION
IS PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIP, AT THE MOMENT IN
OSCODA/ALCONA COS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SHALLOWER LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED ELEMENTS COMING IN OFF OF LK HURON IN NE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVING OVER LK HURON WILL BECOME A
BIT DEEPER TODAY, WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING FROM -10C TO -15C BY
EVENING. THAT WILL MAINTAIN AND ENHANCE THE LAKE RESPONSE (EVEN
AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE LATE TODAY). THOUGH
FORCING IS NOT AMAZING, SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE
IN NE LOWER MI TODAY. AND LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS PER DEFORMATION
WILL AID PRECIP RATES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN LAKE MI BACK TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NNW, NW LOWER MI WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW/ENHANCEMENT INCREASE, EVEN WITH A SHARPER DECREASE IN
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY FROM 2-5" IN THE NE LOWER MI COASTAL
COUNTIES, NORTH OF TAWAS. IN THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER, A
GENERAL 1-2" FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
LEELANAU/BENZIE/GD TRAV COS. 1-3" IN EASTERN UPPER MI.
TONIGHT IS CATEGORIZED BY BACKING WINDS, A DEGREE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE DRYING, AND MUCH COLDER AIR INVADING. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOWER MINUS 20S BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO THE FLOW IS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
(DECREASING LATE). EASTERN UPPER MI SEES A N TO NNW FETCH, NOT
A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FETCH. IN NORTHERN MI, WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK FROM NNW TO BORDERLINE NW/WNW. WE STILL HAVE A A USABLE DGZ
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THOUGH BY MORNING THAT DGZ IS GETTING
CLOSER AND CLOSER TO BEING UNDERGROUND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
TREND TO BEING MORE POWDERY BY DAYBREAK, HURTING SNOW-LIQUID
RATIOS AND ACCUMS. BRISK SURFACE WINDS REMAIN, IN PARTICULAR IN
NW LOWER MI. ACCUMS TONIGHT 1-2" IN FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK COS,
LESS IN THE REST OF EASTERN UPPER MI. NW LOWER MI WILL BE
BROADLY 1-3", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. 1-2" ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE ROGERS CITY/APN AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. SOME COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEDED TONIGHT
IN NW LOWER MI, BUT NO NEED TO HEAD DOWN THAT ROAD YET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A BAND WITH
LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY SUPPLY SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. FOR NOW,
GENERAL THOUGHTS ARE 3-5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OF
6"+ IF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVIER BAND MATERIALIZES (MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS). WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING/ DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL. LAKE EFFECT CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST
MID-WEEK AS COLDER AIR DRAINS INTO THE REGION.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHWOODS WITH THE CORE
OF COLDEST AIR REACHING NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
WITH NEGATIVE TEENS FOR WIND CHILL VALUES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BY MID-WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY THE
WEEKEND. LASTLY, TO END ON SOME GOOD NEWS (IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE
SNOW)... GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK/ WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST-- STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO TONIGHT. THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. REDUCTIONS IN VSBY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TAF SITES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO MONDAY, GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ016>018-024-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ020-021-
025>027-031>033.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
UPDATE...DJC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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