482  
FXUS63 KAPX 162056  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
356 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES  
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK DROPS IN  
VISIBILITY.  
 
- BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:  
 
EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL PIVOT OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND  
MONDAY. STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEEPEN AN  
IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE DOWN NEAR 970MB AS IT TREKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND  
AND OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN EMBEDDED CLOSED  
LOW/WAVE LOOKS TO PUNCH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY  
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEPARTS WELL TO OUR EAST.  
 
FORECAST DETAILS:  
 
ACCUMULATING SNOW, BITTER COLD -- THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH MAINLY LIGHT  
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING FOR MANY AREAS. A HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS  
RECENTLY MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF LEELANAU AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES  
WITH A STRONG LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY  
FOCUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THIS MORE DOMINANT BAND FOCUSES  
OVER PORTIONS OF GRAND TRAVERSE, ANTRIM, AND KALKASKA COUNTIES WITH  
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. EFFICIENT SNOWFALL  
AROUND 1" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND, ALTHOUGH  
RESIDENCE TIME OVER SPECIFIC AREAS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED  
TONIGHT -- AND MAY WORK TO LIMIT HIGHER-END SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  
REGARDLESS, 3-6" IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF  
GRAND TRAVERSE, ANTRIM, AND KALKASKA COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDS SETS UP FOR A FEW HOURS LATER  
TONIGHT.  
 
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL USHER IN COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,  
CREATING A THERMO ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZES AS  
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL LIE ALMOST ENTIRELY OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ.  
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH  
SATURATION CLOSE TO 700MB WILL CREATE AN UPTICK AN AREAL COVERAGE IN  
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR WORKS ACROSS THE  
LAKES. WHEN COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP  
TO 30 MPH, QUICK DROPS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IS  
EXPECTED AT TIMES UNDERNEATH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN, ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW  
VISIBILITIES WITH BLOWING SNOW ACROSS EXPOSED AREAS. LOW  
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE A PRIMARY IMPACT, BUT COLD  
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HINDER EFFECTIVE TREATMENT OF SNOW-COVERED  
ROADWAYS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED  
FLAKE SIZES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" FOR MOST LAKE EFFECT AREAS BY  
MONDAY EVENING. WHILE SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL TO START THE WEEK,  
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO SET IN WITH READINGS INTO THE  
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN  
BEGINNING TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR DIGS INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK  
BEFORE SLOWLY RELENTING LATER IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT  
WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR, VERY LOW WIND CHILLS AND  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK. THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS STAND TO SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW MORE  
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE  
COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND TINY LITTLE SNOWFLAKES  
(DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR). ON THURSDAY, A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW  
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. PERHAPS A FEW  
LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS HIGHER PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY COLD  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE AND  
WE COULD EVEN SEE READINGS APPROACHING NORMAL (UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S)  
BY NEXT WEEKEND (WHICH MAY ACTUALLY FEEL DOWN RIGHT BALMY).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN  
INTO TONIGHT. THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS  
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. REDUCTIONS IN VSBY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
TAF SITES AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST  
LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO  
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO MONDAY, GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES  
THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR  
MIZ016>018-024.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ020-025-  
026-031>033.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ021-022-  
027-028-099.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ346-347.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ344>346.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DJC  
LONG TERM...AJS  
AVIATION...DJC  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page