556
FXUS63 KAPX 170258
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK DROPS IN
VISIBILITY.
- BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
LAKE SNOWS DEFINITELY INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A DIRECT CONNECTION TO LAKE
SUPERIOR LAND BREEZE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BAND HELPING THE CAUSE.
ONE REMARKABLY INTENSE BAND CUTTING FROM CHARLEVOIX COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO CRAWFORD COUNTY...WITH RADAR ESTIMATE SNOWFALL
RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THIS BAND. EXPECT
THIS HIGH IMPACT BAND TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER, WITH BACKING
WINDS EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN MORE MULTI-BAND STRUCTURES. EXPECT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE THIS
DOMINATE BAND PERSISTS THE LONGEST. FURTHER NORTH, BEST
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO REMAIN LOCKED WELL WEST OF EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...KEEPING BEST SNOWS TARGETING THE CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN SNOW BELTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL PIVOT OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEEPEN AN
IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE DOWN NEAR 970MB AS IT TREKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOW/WAVE LOOKS TO PUNCH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEPARTS WELL TO OUR EAST.
FORECAST DETAILS:
ACCUMULATING SNOW, BITTER COLD -- THE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING FOR MANY AREAS. A HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS
RECENTLY MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF LEELANAU AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
WITH A STRONG LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THIS MORE DOMINANT BAND FOCUSES
OVER PORTIONS OF GRAND TRAVERSE, ANTRIM, AND KALKASKA COUNTIES WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
AROUND 1" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND, ALTHOUGH
RESIDENCE TIME OVER SPECIFIC AREAS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
TONIGHT -- AND MAY WORK TO LIMIT HIGHER-END SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REGARDLESS, 3-6" IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
GRAND TRAVERSE, ANTRIM, AND KALKASKA COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDS SETS UP FOR A FEW HOURS LATER
TONIGHT.
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL USHER IN COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,
CREATING A THERMO ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZES AS
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL LIE ALMOST ENTIRELY OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
SATURATION CLOSE TO 700MB WILL CREATE AN UPTICK AN AREAL COVERAGE IN
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR WORKS ACROSS THE
LAKES. WHEN COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH, QUICK DROPS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES UNDERNEATH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN, ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW
VISIBILITIES WITH BLOWING SNOW ACROSS EXPOSED AREAS. LOW
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE A PRIMARY IMPACT, BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HINDER EFFECTIVE TREATMENT OF SNOW-COVERED
ROADWAYS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
FLAKE SIZES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" FOR MOST LAKE EFFECT AREAS BY
MONDAY EVENING. WHILE SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL TO START THE WEEK,
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO SET IN WITH READINGS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR DIGS INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK
BEFORE SLOWLY RELENTING LATER IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT
WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR, VERY LOW WIND CHILLS AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS STAND TO SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW MORE
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND TINY LITTLE SNOWFLAKES
(DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR). ON THURSDAY, A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE READINGS APPROACHING NORMAL (UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S)
BY NEXT WEEKEND (WHICH MAY ACTUALLY FEEL DOWN RIGHT BALMY).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER PASSING LAKE CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE
TERMINALS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MINIMAL, ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE A
FEW INCHES AT KTVC. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ020>022-
025>028-031>033-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
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