243
FXUS63 KAPX 180442
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BRISK WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
- BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY MORNING..
- TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REBOUND BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS INHERITED. MULTI-
BANDED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS TARGETING OUR TRADITIONAL SNOW
BELT LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH
MORE ORGANIZED AND INTENSE SNOWS EXPECTED TO TARGET ANTRIM AND
KALKASKA COUNTIES. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL REMAIN BELOW CLOUD
BASE, RESULTING IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE...POOR AT ACCUMULATING BUT
VERY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES. LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 MORE
INCHES WHERE SNOWS ARE MOST PERSISTENT, WITH LESS AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO AND MARGINALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO. ALL
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
CURRENT OVERVIEW / PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
LONGWAVE TROUGHING HAS SET UP SHOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
INTO CANADA, DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THOSE SORTA-STILL-OPEN LAKES ARE GENERATING A CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE YET AGAIN. EXPECT THIS CYCLONIC FLOW TO CONTINUE ITS
REIGN OF DOMINANCE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE RELIEF IN
SIGHT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CAVEAT WITH THIS PARTICULAR OUTBURST IS THAT WE HAVE GOTTEN
SO COLD, THAT THE OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS BEING GENERATED
**ABOVE** THE DGZ, RESULTING IN MINIMAL DENDRITIC GROWTH, AND
MORE OF A GUNPOWDER COMPOSITION. THIS HAS LED TO RAPID ONSET
WHITEOUTS FROM THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERAL WNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT GETTING PUMPED INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN, WITH "STRONG DIURNAL HEATING" WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS HELPING TO EXTEND INSTABILITY
PROFILES WELL INLAND, AND THUS, THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ACHIEVING "CROSS PENINSULAR" STATUS... I.E., GOING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. FOR OUR FRIENDS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE,
MOST ACTIVITY IS CONFINED WELL WEST OF I-75. DOMINANT LAKE /
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS YIELDED AN
EXCEPTIONAL CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO THE PICTURED ROCKS REGION, AND THE
FALLOUT FROM THIS IS SPILLING INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY AT
THE MOMENT.
FORECAST DETAILS:
EASTERN UPPER: PRIMARY SPOT OF CONCERN REMAINS WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH HEAVIEST SNOWFALLS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NW OF THERE. MODELS HAVEN'T REALLY HONED IN ON A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION... BUT THUS FAR, BASED OFF SATELLITE AND RADAR, THERE ISN'T
MUCH TO BUY INTO WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION, THE COMPOSITION
OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REALLY PILE UP, SO WILL BE
HOLDING ON UPGRADING THEM TO AN ADVISORY. AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT, THIS WILL BRING WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY INTO PLAY, SO
WILL BE HOISTING AN ADVISORY FOR THEM THRU 12Z TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL GOES, THE AREAS IN THE ADVISORY LIKELY SEE 3-6"
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY, THOUGH IT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO CONSIDER... WINDS WILL STILL BE PRETTY
PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
(EXCEPTION IS THE SAULT, WHICH MAY APPROACH -10F). WIND CHILLS WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -20 TO -25F, TONIGHT... SO THAT HAS WARRANTED A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OUTSIDE OF WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
COUNTIES. THIS WILL RUN FROM 9PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM TUESDAY.
NORTHERN LOWER: CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE MOST DOMINANT BANDING
EXTENDING FROM EMMET THROUGH PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES, ALONG WITH
ANOTHER BAND EXTENDING THROUGH THE "QUAD CORNER" OF ANTRIM, OTSEGO,
CRAWFORD, AND KALKASKA COUNTIES. EXPECTING MOST OF THESE TRENDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THAT
BANDING OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT GENERALLY FADING OUT AS WINDS
TURN JUST SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND THE MOISTURE TAP FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IS CUT OFF BY ICE COVER NORTH / EAST OF BEAVER
ISLAND. THE FOCUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT'S LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN LOWER WILL FOCUS ON KALKASKA AND ANTRIM
COUNTIES, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW (LOCALLY
MORE) IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DID ALREADY UPGRADE
ANTRIM AT THE MORNING UPDATE, AND AFTER SOME DELIBERATION, HAVE
DECIDED TO UPGRADE KALKASKA INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS
WELL CONSIDERING THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDING WILL HOVER OVER
THEM. ANOTHER ADDITION TO THE HEADLINE GROUP IS PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTY... PERSISTENT BANDING HAS CONSISTENTLY LEAKED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO FIRE BACK UP
TOMORROW WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS... FAVORING THE NORTHWEST
LOWER SNOWBELTS... EMPHASIS ON THE "BIG FIVE" OF CHARLEVOIX,
ANTRIM, OTSEGO, CRAWFORD, AND KALKASKA... SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY
TO MANISTEE. LESSER ACCUMS ELSEWHERE WITH SOME PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE ALSO IN PLAY FOR NORTHERN
LOWER... WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -15 TO -20 EXPECTED TONIGHT,
PROBABLY MOST PERTINENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST / SOUTH TO
LAKE HURON AND SAGINAW BAY WHERE LESSER LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR AIR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
RIDGING LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AS TROUGHING DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. SAID TROUGHING WILL PUNCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
THURSDAY AS RIDGING FOLDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL BUILD STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS, EXPANDING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS VARYING
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER HEADING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LOOKS TO SHUT
OFF LAKE EFFECT CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGINNING TO WARM SOME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE MID 30S DURING THE DAYTIME BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.|
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MORE OF THE SAME WITH GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDTIONS
PREVAILING UNDER RELATIVELY HIGH BASED LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. OF COURSE, MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER ANY PASSING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, LIKELY UNDER AN INCH. WINDS
BECOMING A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020-022-025-026-028-031>033-095-099.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-087-088-096>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ018-086.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ021-027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB
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