546
FXUS63 KAPX 181128
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY FOR TYPICAL SNOWBELT LOCATIONS.
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT & BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REBOUND BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... A W/E ORIENTATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
AND ALLOW FOR WARMER 850 TEMPS TO GRADUALLY ADVECT ABOVE NORTHERN MI
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN NW/NNW TUESDAY,
TURNING N EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LL JET STARTING AROUND 2.1KFT
WILL GENERATE BREEZY WINDS MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE
TIP OF THE MITT AND OVER NE LOWER (GUSTS UP TO 20 - 30 MPH). WINDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LES WILL CONTINUE FOR TYPICAL
SNOWBELT LOCATIONS OF EASTERN UPPER, NW LOWER, AND THE TIP OF THE
MITT TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
LES CHANCES PIVOT AND LESSEN. ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS...CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS GENERALLY BANDED LES OVER
WHITEFISH POINT AND AREAS ADJACENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BANDED LES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LES OVER NW
LOWER HAS BEEN BECOMING ISOLATED AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT AROUND. A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RETURN MID MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A BAND
OVER ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES TO STRENGTHEN AND GENERATE MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. NOT ONLY WILL 850 TEMPS GRADUALLY RISE
(AND ALLOW MORE GROWTH IN THE DGZ TO RETURN SLRS BACK TO NEAR 18 TO
25:1), BUT A LL NW JET WILL AID IN CONTINUED GENERATION OF LES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN AREAS NORTH (NEAR
THE TIP OF THE MITT), AS MUCH OF NORTHERN LK MI CONTINUES TO BE ICE
COVERED. BREEZY WINDS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE ICE CAN
BREAK UP AND RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
TO GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
ROADWAYS. BEST CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE
MITT STARTING MID MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAMS DEPICT MULTIPLE BANDS FORMING OVER NORTHERN LOWER BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
CONFINED TO ANTRIM & KALKASKA COUNTIES, AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO
WHITEFISH POINT. BELOW ARE FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY. DUE TO
WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM NW TO NNW, THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
SNOW COULD SHIFT UP TO 20 MILES.
FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS 7 AM TODAY THRU 7 AM WEDNESDAY:
- WHITEFISH POINT & ADJACENT AREAS: 3 - 5 INCHES
- NON-SNOWBELT AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER: 1 TO 3 INCHES
- TIP OF THE MITT: T TO 2 INCHES
- KALKASKA & ANTRIM COUNTIES: 2 TO 4 INCHES
- REMAINING LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER: T TO 2 INCHES
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH COLD ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN DRYING THE ENVIRONMENT,
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS STILL LOOK CONDUCIVE WITH RELATIVELY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,
WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY,
BUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES SLOWLY CREEPING BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S, AND THEN POTENTIALLY EVEN LOW TO MID 30S BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO ISOLATED BANDS OF LES.
A FEW TERMINALS SEEING IFR UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. EXISTING
BANDS OF SN WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED AFTER 14Z, AND
MORE BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SN ARE LIKELY TO FORM AFTER
18Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH ISOLATED
IFR UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. WINDS GENERALLY NW/NNW AT 10 TO
15KTS WITH G20 TO 25KTS FROM 14Z THROUGH 00Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-087-088-096>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-
017-021-022-027-028-033-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-
025-026-031-032-086-095.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ027.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346-
347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MSB/ELD
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