534
FXUS63 KAPX 190300
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
WITH EVEN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS LIKELY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, WITH DEVELOPING BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ONLY HELPING THE TEMPERATURE FREE-FALL. LOOKING FOR
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T
BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THOSE AREAS THAT AGGRESSIVELY
CLEAR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
CURRENT OVERVIEW / PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER DAY OF LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION BUBBLING ACROSS THE REGION. LESSER MOISTURE ALOFT HAS
SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED THE INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
NONETHELESS, THEY REMAIN PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT SOME
"DIURNAL HEATING" IS MATERIALIZING AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
TEENS, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE COVERAGE INCREASE. FOR THE MOST PART,
THESE ARE LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THE ACCOMPANYING 20-30MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, STOUT ARCTIC BORNE LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS
SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO THE EAST, AND NORTHERLY FLOW IS ACTUALLY
LEADING TO WARMING ALOFT, BUT NONETHELESS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PROCESSES ARE SET TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS CONSIDERABLY, WHICH SHOULD DECOUPLE
ORGANIZED FLOW. SURFACE BASED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW, LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING MORE
NORTHERLY, AND POTENTIALLY YIELDING MESOLOW PROCESSES COMMENCING
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS:
STILL ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSING IN INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER AS WELL. BANDS WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES OF NORTHWEST LOWER, AND IN THE EASTERN YOOP, BANDS SHIFT
AWAY FROM WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY INTO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA PROBABLY IN THE
ORDER OF 2-3" THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OCCURRING BEFORE
1AM. IN NORTHERN LOWER, AN INITIAL UPTICK IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
SHOULD BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS... WITH THE
FOCUS OF LESSER ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE CORRIDOR WITH TIME. BEFORE THIS OCCURS, MOST DOMINANT
SNOWS WILL BE OVER KALKASKA AND ANTRIM, WHICH COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3" THROUGH 1AM. MOST OTHER SPOTS SEE AN INCH OR
LESS, PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1AM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, BUT COULD EASILY BE TAKEN DOWN SOONER
ONCE SNOW BEGINS ITS DEPARTURE FROM THE HEADLINED AREAS.
WEDNESDAY'S ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING
DRIVEN WITH THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT. RESULT WILL BE SHORE-
PARALLEL BANDS IN NW LOWER TAKING SHAPE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORES MAXIMIZES. PERHAPS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SOME MESOLOW PROCESSES MATERIALIZE, BUT THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS EVOLUTION. MORE DETAILS
TO COME IN THE PASSING FORECAST CYCLES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A STRONG CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING WILL
PIVOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN FOLD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUILDS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES SLIDE OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS:
THE GREAT LAKES BEING LODGED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THESE WINDS AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND. ENHANCED SNOWFALL MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LEELANAU, BENZIE, AND MANISTEE COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY STRONG BANDS WILL BE SHOVED
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO LAND BREEZE FORMATION. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT SAID BANDING WAFFLES BACK ONSHORE THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SANDWICHED IN THE
DGZ, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT, FLUFFY SNOWFALL. PRECIP
CHANCES FINALLY WANE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN,
WIND DIRECTION SWITCHES TO WEST/SOUTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY LOOK TO LIKE THEY MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /006 TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KTVC AND
KMBL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB
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