938
FXUS63 KAPX 191504
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1004 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 TO
3 INCHES NEAR LK MICHIGAN COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
- WARMING TREND THRU THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPS RISE
INTO THE 30S.
- CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK. STILL LOOKING AT SOME MEAGER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW PROCESSES CONTINUING, MAINLY ACROSS NW LOWER AND PRESQUE
ISLE COUNTY. NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY MORE N
WITH TIME AS SURFACE FLOW SLACKENS AND SURFACE TROUGHING (LAKE
AGGREGATE) SWINGS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, LEADING TO MORE OF A SHORE
PARRALEL BANDING SETUP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LAND-LAKE BOUNDARY LAYER
INTERACTION STILL LEAVES MESOLOW GENERATION IN PLAY FOR LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SW TO MANISTEE. WITH THE SUBTLE
WARMING ALOFT, WE HAVE ACTUALLY WOUND UP IN A MORE FAVORABLE SNOW
GROWTH PROFILE, MEANING INSTEAD OF THE GUNPOWDER, LOW-VIS, EASILY
BLOWN SNOWFALL WE HAVE ENDURED SINCE SUNDAY, WE ARE TRENDING BACK
INTO THE FLUFFIER LAKE EFFECT WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE. THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES... DO THE SHORE PARRALEL BANDS REMAIN JUST OFF SHORE
AND SIMPLY BECOME FISH FOOD? OR DO THESE BANDS SCRAPE THE MANISTEE,
ARCADIA, ONEKAMA, FRANKFORT, EMPIRE AREAS AND LEAVE A THIN STRIPE OF
4-5" OF SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS? CAMS HAVE SHOWN MIXED SIGNALS FOR
EXTREME AMOUNTS OVER THAT REGION (SOME CAMS TRY TO SPIT OUT 8-9" OF
SNOW JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MANISTEE, OTHERS HAVE 3-5"). THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THIS. ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES WARRANTED FOR THIS WILL
BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON IF THE FORECAST NECESSATES IT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES
WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM FALLING SNOW THIS MORNING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE FAR EAST COASTAL LOCATIONS OF PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTY WHERE MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL LIKELY EXISTS. THIS BAND HAS
MOSTLY BEEN OFF SHORE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY IMPACT AREAS OF A
FEW MILES INLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND LIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES SW OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THIS WILL DIMINISH LES CHANCES
FOR NW LOWER TODAY AND FOCUS LIGHT TO MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW OVER
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST OF I-75. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTHERN MI AND SHOULD PUSH
MOST LES CHANCES OFF SHORE BY THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW
THIS EVENING, BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN ONE
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FORECAST DETAILS... A BAND OF LES JUST OFF THE COAST OF PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS (EVIDENT
IN RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY ~2 MB GRADIENT TO CAPTURE THE
SURFACE TROUGHING). NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER ONTARIO CAN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TROUGHING SOUTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (<15MPH), WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW
OR FORCING ALOFT (A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE). MOST CAMS HINT AT A
POSSIBLE MESO-LOW FORMING NEAR TRAVERSE CITY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DGZ SATURATION OF ~2-4KFT
WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR MORE MODERATE TO TIMES OF HEAVY SNOWFALL.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST OF I-75
SEEING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WITH TIMES OF MORE MODERATE AND LOCAL
SPOTS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST PLACES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE UP TO 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES. MORE
CONFIDENCE WILL EXIST IN THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS ONCE THE
FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW IS SEEN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SHORELINES OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON, ESPECIALLY THE
FORMER. HOWEVER, AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY
WANING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE, MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD DIMINISH/BE DIMINISHED.
QUICK TROUGHING/VORT MAXES MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO N MI. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN DOMINANT. UNCLEAR ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES N MI REGION SPREADING
PRECIPITATION. THUS, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR WET SNOW/MAYBE A BIT
OF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCES TO SEE SOME
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS E UP, WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLEST
AND PERHAPS NEAR THE BETTER FORCING AS HINTED AT BY ENS GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN MI TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A FEW
BANDS OF -SN ARE IMPACTING A HANDFUL OF TERMINALS OVER NW LOWER.
THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND SW, LEADING TO ISO IFR CIGS
AND VIS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS FOR REMAINING TERMINALS WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z (MOST TAF SITES REMAIN MVFR). WIDESPREAD
FLURRIES AFTER 06Z. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10KTS AND GENERALLY NW/N/NE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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