979
FXUS63 KAPX 191904
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
204 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRING POTENTIAL A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
NEAR FRANKFORT AND MANISTEE; BETTER BANDING OFFSHORE KEEPS
MORE IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
CURRENT OVERVIEW / PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION SHOWCASES PLENTIFUL LOW
CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME BREAKS BUILDING IN CLOSER TO THE ST
MARY'S RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE REGION SOLIDLY WITHIN
A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN A SHARP SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH AND
TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR A NARROW BAND OF CLOUD
DRAPED OVER THE STRAITS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF, WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING,
SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF LIFT. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE SLOWLY
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED TOWARD GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH TO MANISTEE AS
WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE NNW. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DRIFT IN RELATION
WITH A SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW, RESULTING IN MORE OF A
SHORE PARALLEL BANDING SETUP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. IN
ADDITION, LAND BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY TRY TO GENERATE SOME MESOLOW
PROCESSES WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOWFALL, BUT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY, DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF LIFT, WHICH WITH JUST ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS COINCIDING WITH THE DGZ, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
SURFACE TROUGHING (LAKE AGGREGATE) WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION,
RESULTING IN A NET WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY REGIME. RESULT
WILL BE THAT AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE CWA TRENDS AWAY FROM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FOLKS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROUGHLY GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY AND POINTS SOUTH / WEST. DOMINANT BANDING WILL REALLY BE HUGGING
THE SHORELINE, SO AT THIS POINT, IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE US 31 / M-22 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY
FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT SEES THE BEST SHOT
OF OBTAINING A GENERAL 3-5" OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS THIS BETTER AREA OF BANDING SETTING UP JUST OFF THE SHORE. GIVEN
THIS, WILL BE OPTING OUT OF ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR BENZIE AND MANISTEE AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS BAND LOOKS TO
MATERIALIZE WELL WEST OF THE LEELANAU COUNTY SHORELINE, SO WILL BE
EXCLUDING THEM AS WELL.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GENERATE A LIGHT SMATTERING OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HIGHER END IMPACTS FROM THIS, AS MOST SPOTS
PROBABLY PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO PERHAPS A LITTLE
OVER AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF A 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC AS ASSOCIATED TROUGHING WORKS FURTHER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HEIGHT RISES
WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
BUILDING EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
WAVES THEN LOOK TO PROGRESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RELATIVELY WEAK
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW -- AROUND 3KFT -- BUT WITH
SUFFICENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AND SATURATION INTO THE DGZ, CANNOT
BET AGAINST AT LEAST FLURRIES LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TIME ON
FRIDAY, HELPING TO DRAW IN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA AND
WORKING TO SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES
MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELCOMED BY SOME ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS BEFORE RETURNING SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
REACHING INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS SET TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT CIU THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUD COVER
IS SET TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT MBL TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL
SITES. WINDS WILL TAPER SOME THIS EVENING... PREDOMINANTLY N
FLOW OF 7KT OR LESS. MBL WILL SEE MORE OF A NE TO E FLOW DUE TO
LAND AND LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES BEFORE TURNING BACK MORE
NORTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...HAD
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