406
FXUS63 KAPX 200945 CCA
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE 1 TO 2
INCHES.
- WARMING TREND THRU THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPS RISE
INTO THE 30S.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM INFLUENCES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW (MAYBE A LITTLE LIQUID?).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING. UP TO 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW COULD BE SEEN IN A FEW SPOTS
DURING THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LOW END BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND, REACHING INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY, BUT SHOULD CLEAR
UP IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING IN TYPICAL SNOWBELT LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
FORECAST DETAILS... RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BRING IN WARMER 850 MB TEMPS AND DRIER AIR TODAY, MAKING IT HARD FOR
HIGH ACCUMULATIONS FROM LES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILES
LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON (AN INVERSION AROUND 3-4 KFT ALLOWS DGZ
SATURATION DEPTH TO REACH AROUND 8-9 KFT - WHERE THERE IS
SATURATION), HOWEVER THE PATTERN AND OVERALL FORCING DOES INDICATE
SNOWFALL WILL BE NOT RESIDING IN ONE PLACE FOR VERY LONG. NORTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING
AND BY THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
GENERAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S, APPROACHING 30 FOR SOME. QUICK MOVING, COMPACT,
VIGOROUS, YET MOISTURE STARVED WAVE ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH ~LAKE
SUPERIOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT PROBABLY BEING AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT
SUPPOSE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SNOW SHOWER COULD FOSTER WITHIN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBTLE WAVES MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH, THESE
FEATURES LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND THUS, ONLY EXPECTING
LIGHT STUFF AT THIS TIME.
MORE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO
IMPACT N MI ~LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING
FEATURE, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID,
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY LIGHT QPF, CMC BEING THE MOST BULLISH.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL OVERALL, SO WE'LL LIKELY BE
SKIRTING THE RAIN/WET SNOW LINE FOR SOME. RIGHT NOW MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ~A TENTH OR TWO OF LIQUID, PERHAPS SOME FALLING AS
A LITTLE LIQUID, SOME SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR WET SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE E UP. STILL WORTH WILD TO KEEP AN EYE ON GIVEN
THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. LOOKS QUITE ENERGETIC THEREAFTER INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE N-C PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, SO CERTAINLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE POLEWARD REGIONS AND
A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MILDER
CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, REMAINING AS SUCH THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SCATTERED N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO OUR SNOWBELT AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DIMINISH
TOMORROW AS UPSTREAM RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK INTO MICHIGAN.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR WITHIN SOME OF THE MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY AROUND MBL). SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AOB 10 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR
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