719
FXUS63 KAPX 201451
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
951 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE 1 TO 2
INCHES.
- WARMING TREND THRU THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPS RISE
INTO THE 30S.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM INFLUENCES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW (MAYBE A LITTLE LIQUID?).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWCASES ONGOING MOISTURE PLUME WITH
SUPPORT FROM DEPARTING DEFORMATION ZONE WITHIN LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS
STILL PRODUCING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME LAKE ELEMENTS
ENHANCING THE ACTION FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE COUNTIES. PERFECT LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TEMPERATURES BASICALLY RIDING ALL OF THE DGZ FROM
THE SURFACE TO 600MB HAVE ALLOWED FOR THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
PHENOMENON. MOST SPOTS GOT 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THIS SNOW LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING... AND WITH SOME BIG FLUFFY
FLAKES, SOME PLACES REALIZED SNOW RATIOS AS HIGH AS 40:1. SO AS WE
CONTINUE TO PLOD OUR WAY THROUGH WHAT IS TURNING TO BE A BANNER
WINTER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WE CONTINUE TO SEE WHAT CAN ONLY BE
DESCRIBED AS "SNOW DU JOUR"... WE HAVE SEEN SNOWFALL ON 86 OF THE
LAST 93 DAYS DATING TO NOVEMBER 20TH... THE DAY OF THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL THIS WINTER HERE AT NWS GAYLORD... WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT, MIND YOU... WET
SNOW, FLUFFY SNOW, GUNPOWDERY SNOW, SYNOPTIC SNOW, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW... YOU NAME IT, WE'VE HAD IT... A WHOLE 180.9" INCHES OF
IT AS OF 7AM THIS MORNING!
ONGOING FORECAST LARGELY HOLDS... DEFORMATION AXIS SLOWLY IS FORCED
EASTWARD BY INTRUDING RIDGING, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SHUT OFF THE
SNOWFALL FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DO TREND MORE NW WITH
TIME INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO THE NW FLOW SNOWBELTS, BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
SHALLOWING INVERSION WILL LIKELY PUT THE KIBASH ON ANY ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT, LIKELY RESULTING IN A RARE SNOW-FREE
STRETCH TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE
RUNNING FORECAST IS INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWS OCCURRING. WILL BE REDUCING THEM FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH JUST SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
SNOWBELTS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT THAT EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING. UP TO 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW COULD BE SEEN IN A FEW SPOTS
DURING THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LOW END BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND, REACHING INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY, BUT SHOULD CLEAR
UP IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING IN TYPICAL SNOWBELT LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
FORECAST DETAILS... RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BRING IN WARMER 850 MB TEMPS AND DRIER AIR TODAY, MAKING IT HARD FOR
HIGH ACCUMULATIONS FROM LES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILES
LASTING THROUGH AROUND NOON (AN INVERSION AROUND 3-4 KFT ALLOWS DGZ
SATURATION DEPTH TO REACH AROUND 8-9 KFT - WHERE THERE IS
SATURATION), HOWEVER THE PATTERN AND OVERALL FORCING IS VERY WEAK
AND NOT TIMED RIGHT. NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING AND BY THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT IS
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
GENERAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S, APPROACHING 30 FOR SOME. QUICK MOVING, COMPACT,
VIGOROUS, YET MOISTURE STARVED WAVE ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH ~LAKE
SUPERIOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT PROBABLY BEING AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT
SUPPOSE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SNOW SHOWER COULD FOSTER WITHIN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBTLE WAVES MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH, THESE
FEATURES LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND THUS, ONLY EXPECTING
LIGHT STUFF AT THIS TIME.
MORE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO
IMPACT N MI ~LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING
FEATURE, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID,
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY LIGHT QPF, CMC BEING THE MOST BULLISH.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL OVERALL, SO WE'LL LIKELY BE
SKIRTING THE RAIN/WET SNOW LINE FOR SOME. RIGHT NOW MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ~A TENTH OR TWO OF LIQUID, PERHAPS SOME FALLING AS
A LITTLE LIQUID, SOME SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR WET SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE E UP. STILL WORTH WILD TO KEEP AN EYE ON GIVEN
THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. LOOKS QUITE ENERGETIC THEREAFTER INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE N-C PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, SO CERTAINLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE POLEWARD REGIONS AND
A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MILDER
CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, REMAINING AS SUCH THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD -SN IS LEADING TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MI TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRU GENERALLY 16Z (SOME TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN LOWER COULD SEE
CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH 18Z). LIGHT N WINDS WILL SHIFT NNW
AND THEN W NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
10 TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME NORTHERN LOWER TERMINALS
SEEING G15 - G20KTS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 01Z, WITH A RETURN OF
LIGHT SN FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE LK MI COAST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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