447
FXUS63 KAPX 201910
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
210 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
CORRECTION... KEY MESSAGES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
- DRIER WITH SUNNIER SKIES AND CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- MILDER NEXT WEEK WITH SPORADIC SNOW OR RAIN-SNOW CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
CURRENT LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAKESHORE
LOCALES, NAMELY FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTHWEST TO MANISTEE. ALL
IN ALL, SUBSIDENCE HAS BEGUN TO REALLY DO A NUMBER ON THINGS HERE,
AND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW, LAKE INFLUENCES ARE LIMITED. WINDS WILL
VEER BACK TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE SNOWBELTS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ORGANIZATION OF
THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO ABOUT 850MB BY ABOUT 05-07Z
TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE QUITE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOWFALL
LATER TONIGHT FOR THOSE SNOWBELT AREAS... WITH LOWS RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE, TO
NEAR 10 ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER, SINGLE DIGITS IN FAR NE
LOWER, AND ANYWHERE FROM A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
IN THE EASTERN U.P. ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER
QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THAT WIND SHIFT BRINGS MORE CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA, EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING EFFICIENT DIURNAL COOLING
RESPONSES, EVEN WITH THE AMPLE REFRIGERANT COVERING THE GROUND
IN THE FORM OF SNOWPACK.
EVENTUALLY, AN ABSOLUTE GEM OF A LATE FEBRUARY DAY EMERGES FOR
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 AND PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AS
SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WIN OUT, WHICH, IF YOU HAVEN'T
HEARD, HAS BEEN QUITE THE RARITY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS YEAR!
WITH AS MUCH SNOW AS THERE IS ON THE GROUND, AND TEMPERATURES IN A
COMFORTABLE RANGE, CERTAINLY AN ELITE DAY FOR THOSE WINTER REC
ENTHUSIASTS WHO ARE MAKING AN EARLY START TO THE WEEKEND AND HEADING
TO THE SLOPES, RIDING SNOWMOBILES, OR HITTING THE ICE FOR SOME
FISHING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
A GENERAL RIDGE-Y WEST, TROF-Y EAST PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU THE
LONG TERM. HOWEVER, DEEP UPPER TROFFING AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIR IS
GETTING SHUNTED EASTWARD TO END THIS WEEK. THE LESS-AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE, AND EVENTUALLY REACH
(SOMEWHAT) WARMER THAN NORMAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE OCCASIONAL WX-MAKING SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA
OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THOUGH A
DECAYING SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT, IT SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO PRODUCE PRECIP. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRI NIGHT
THOUGH. BY SATURDAY, PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SNOW CHANCES TO FINALLY RE-EMERGE. THAT FRONT
MIGHT NEAR UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY, BUT THEN IT KICKS BACK NORTHWARD AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS AND STRENGTHENS HERE.
A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING. HIGHER POPS (LIKELY IN SOME AREAS, MOSTLY SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIXED) BUILD IN AS SOON AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES THEN CONTINUE THRU THE WEEK.
TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY, BEFORE LEAPING AND
STAYING ABOVE NORMAL FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. HOWEVER, FOR THOSE HOPING
THIS MIGHT BE THE VERY BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION TO SOMETHING THAT
AT LEAST VAGUELY RESEMBLES SPRING...PROBABLY NOT, NO. ANOTHER PLUNGE
OF ARCTIC AIR APPEARS TO BE LOOMING BEYOND THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO MBL AND TVC NOW THAT LOW
CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO SCOUR OUT, RESULTING IN A RESUMPTION OF
PREVAILING VFR CIGS AT CIU AND PLN, AND LIKELY SOON, APN AS WELL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TONIGHT, LEAVING MBL AND TVC IN THAT
MVFR SETTING, WHILE MOST OTHER SITES ROLL WITH VFR CIGS. FRIDAY
BRINGS DRIER WEATHER AND LARGELY VFR CIGS AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND
PEEKS OF SUN MAKE A SHOWING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
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