059
FXUS63 KAPX 211729
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR COASTAL AREAS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY
SPOTS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S SUNDAY INTO PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
- FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW, PERHAPS MIXING W/RAIN, EARLY-MID NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
AN UNUSUALLY QUIET MORNING OUT THERE. SOME SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES OVER NE LOWER MI (APN/ROGERS) WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH,
AS OUR AIRMASS MODIFIES/WARMS, AND WINDS BACK. CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD, AND ON BALANCE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS FROM MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL ALSO AID IN ADVECTING WARMER 850MB TEMPS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
TONIGHT. BREEZY TO LOW END GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
SEEN LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL
AREAS).
FORECAST DETAILS... CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES &
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. THESE FLURRIES WILL
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING, WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME CALM THEN
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDDAY. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG LK MI AND LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG US HWY 2, ESPECIALLY NEAR OPEN AREAS. THIS
WILL NOT BE A RESULT OF NEW SNOW SHOWERS, BUT SNOW FROM THE LAKE
BLOWING SLIGHTLY INLAND AS MOST OF LK MI FROM BEAVER ISLAND NORTH IS
ICE COVERED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
COUPLE OF VORTS MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE "DEEPEST"
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS, THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE E UP, BUT FARTHER
SOUTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY, AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
NEXT FEATURE ALOFT SWINGS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS. THUS, THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DPVA/JET STREAK/WAA WILL FEATURE SOME SNOW,
PERHAPS MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN FOR SOME. THIS WILL BE A QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION, AND LIGHT FOR MOST, SO NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN REGARDS TO RAIN ON SNOWMELT FLOODING OR
SNOWFALL (AT THIS TIME), BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FEW MORE FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORT WAVES MOVE WEST TO EAST WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT. THUS, THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW/RAIN
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MI DURING THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH WE'LL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE PERTURBATIONS AND SUBSEQUENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELDS END UP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE REGION. LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. JUST VFR AFTER THAT.
LIGHT W WINDS WILL BECOME SW LATER TONIGHT, AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY
OF SATURDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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