284
FXUS63 KAPX 270808
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER AGAIN TODAY.
- MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES BRING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
MIX EVENT NORTH OF M-68 OVER THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDER SOUTH.
- CONDITIONS FINALLY TURN DRIER LATER MONDAY FOLLOWING A DEPARTING
SHOT OF SNOW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST DETAILS:
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
AND OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS FROM THE ROCKIES OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT GENERATED AT THE
RIDGE/TROUGH INFLECTION POINT. ONE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS TODAY, WHILE A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LOOKS TO EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE
40S AND EVEN LOW/MID-50S ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER. INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES
MOVE INTO THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS / FORECAST SUMMARY:
QUICK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLING OVER THE STRAITS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE MATERIALIZES OVERHEAD. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO FRIDAY, WITH ENERGY STREAMING IN
VIA THE ZONAL FLOW COURTESY OF A SERIES OF WAVES CRESTING A RIDGE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND BRINGING A DREARY AND MISERABLE
STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT ENCOMPASSES THE WEEKEND. A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BRIDGE, WHILE THE FARTHER
SOUTH ONE GOES FROM THE BRIDGE (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32) HAVE A
MORE BRIEF ROUND OF MIXED PRECIP THAT SHOULD FLIP TO RAIN. ASIDE
FROM A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN WAVES SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
EXPECTING PRETTY PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AS AMPLE SATURATION HOVERS OVER THE REGION. THIS SERIES OF
WAVES WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY.
FORECAST SUMMARY:
FRIDAY - EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: CERTAINLY NOT THE MOST ADMIRABLE
STRETCH OF WEATHER ON THE DOCKET FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL LATE
SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT NOT OFF THE TABLE, PARTICULARLY FOR
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
WAVES OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY STREAM INTO THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT KEEPING THE EASTERN YOOP COLDER, AND
THUS ALL WINTRY PRECIP FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECTING AN INITIAL SNOW AT
ONSET THAT GIVES WAY TO A MESSY SLEET / FREEZING RAIN MIX THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE AREA THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATEST IMPACTS... A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
WITH A CRUNCHY SLEET AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT / HIGHER END ICING
EVENT IN PLACES THAT BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SOME INFRASTRUCTURE
IMPACTS. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING SOME AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF
SLEET (ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOO), ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.25" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN
YOOP THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SETS THE STAGE FOR A TRICKIER FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, AS WARMER AIR WILL BE BATTLING INTO
THE AREA, LIKELY KEEPING MOST AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 IN A BRIEF MIXY
REGIME THAT QUICKLY FLIPS TO RAIN. THINGS GET A LITTLE MURKY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR TERRAIN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT, WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN
THAT DELICATE 31-33 DEGREE RANGE. CONSIDERING THE MAIN SWATH OF QPF
WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN M-72 AND M-28 (AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.00"
ARE TRENDING LIKELY), IF SOME SPOTS CAN HOLD ON TO THOSE COLDER
TEMPERATURES, FREEZING RAIN MAY BECOME EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC, WHICH
COULD EXTEND IMPACTS ACROSS EMMET, CHEBOYGAN, AND PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAINS OF CHARLEVOIX, ANTRIM,
OTSEGO, MONTMORENCY, AND ALPENA COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED, AS IT IS POSSIBLE THIS GENERAL AREA
COULD SEE ANYTHING FROM A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM (0.20"+ ICING) TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MORE DETAILS IN THE COMING
CYCLES. ONE CAVEAT TO CONSIDER- THE HEAVIER THE RAIN IS DURING
FREEZING RAIN, THE MORE THE WATER "RUNS" BEFORE FREEZING, WHICH
COULD LIMIT ICING ACCRETIONS, BUT NONETHELESS, POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGHER END IMPACT EVENT DOES STILL EXIST IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON - MONDAY: AS IF THAT FIRST BATCH OF NASTINESS
WASN'T ENOUGH, ANOTHER WAVE BARGES THROUGH THE REGION, AND BRINGS
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. IN A BORDERLINE REPEAT
SCENARIO, ANTICIPATION IS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN /
SLEET WILL IMPACT NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA, WITH RAIN AND
THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH. THIS COULD DELIVER ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION, ALREADY CONTENDING WITH THE IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT'S
SYSTEM, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING. ONE FINAL SYSTEM
WILL DELIVER A PERIOD OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO
MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRIER (ALBEIT, COLDER THAN
NORMAL) CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SE US WILL SLIDE EAST
OVERNIGHT. A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CLIP NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY....RESULTING MAINLY IN A SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-098.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR
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