052
FXUS63 KAPX 281504
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT TONIGHT.
- NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
- FOLLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ACTION MIDDAY SATURDAY,
ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIP (WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH MORE OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO THE
STRAITS) BUILDS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURAL IMPACTS.
- A QUICK WARMUP BUILDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, PRECIPITATION FLIPS
BACK TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
- CONDITIONS FINALLY TURN DRIER LATER MONDAY FOLLOWING A DEPARTING
SHOT OF SNOW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT WHICH WAS INHERITED TO
ACCOUNT FOR REAL-TIME RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL
EXPECTING AN EXPANDING AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WILL
EVALUATE THE FULL SUITE OF LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR ANY FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THRU
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN-
MOST STATIONARY FRONT. UPSTREAM RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
INCREASING RETURNS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND ATTM.
OUR ANTICIPATED BUSY WX PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY THIS EVENING...THEN SLIDING THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN-MOST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND UP/OVER THE WARM FRONT. DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME REGARDING
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING...BUT PUSH OF DEEP MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION AND ENHANCED LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD.
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA THRU
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HOLDS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
PRECIP TYPE WILL OF COURSE BE THE BIG ISSUE AS A VERY PRONOUNCED
WARM NOSE DEVELOPS IN ONGOING LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. MEANWHILE...
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA WILL COOL TO AT AND BELOW
FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET
MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. THE TIMING OF THIS MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS ALSO AN ISSUE. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH LIFTING WARMER SURFACE TEMPS FURTHER NORTH AND HOLDING THEM
THERE FOR A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REACH ICE STORM
WARNING CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. WILL THEREFORE REPLACE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA WITH AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY MORNING. THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
CURRENTLY UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WELL UNDER WARNING CRITERIA. WILL THEREFORE REPLACE
THE WATCH WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR OUR 3 FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH WARM FRONT STALLING OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA...TEMP GRADIENT WILL
BE RATHER TIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS / FORECAST SUMMARY:
ZONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH MICHIGAN, RAMPING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
MIX BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PLENTIFUL POOL OF
SATURATION PASSES OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH GOOD LIFTING ALONG A
STAGNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SURGE
BACK NORTHWARD SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD PUT MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER BACK
INTO PLAIN RAIN (WITH EVEN SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY EVENING),
WHILE SOME MIXING ISSUES PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM FINALLY CLEARS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, STRONG BACKSIDE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS
A DEPARTING SHOT FROM THIS PROLONGED LATE SEASON WINTRY OUTBURST.
DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD IN BY TUESDAY, ALBEIT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
FORECAST SUMMARY:
SATURDAY MORNING: STILL SOME ONGOING RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE LAST BIT OF STRONGER
FORCING FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT WAA WING DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER
AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE ACTION ACROSS THE EASTERN YOOP
SATURDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. BEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... AND COLDER TEMPS MAY SUPPORT A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY FROM A CHARLEVOIX TO
HARRISVILLE LINE AND NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS. THE CRAWFORD TO
ALCONA COUNTY ROW SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY UNFAZED FROM THIS COLDER
AIR... WITH MOST OF THE IMPACTS LARGELY HOLDING ALONG AND NORTH OF M-
32 SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL GLAZE TO 0.05" OF ICING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE, IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS ADDITIONAL ICING WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES AND SHADED AREAS... SO IMPACTS (ON PAPER) SHOULD BE WINDING
DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SOMEWHAT.
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY: NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY FAVOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DRAWS THE FRONT
NORTHWARD. A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT NNE FLOW FROM
BOTH THE CYCLONE, REINFORCED BY AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
JAMES BAY (STRONG ANALOG FOR ZR EVENTS IN NORTHERN MI) WILL ALLOW
FOR A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD FOOTPRINT OF FREEZING RAIN TO MATERIALIZE
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP STUBBORN 32F OR
LESS AIRMASS OVER A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF NORTHERN LOWER... IN
SPECIFICS, FAVORING AREAS EAST OF US 131 AND NORTH OF M-55... SO
THIS INCLUDES THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSCOMMON, OGEMAW,
AND IOSCO COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE DETRIMENTAL ICING IMPACTS SHOULD REALLY
START TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF NORTHERN
LOWER, EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO THE EASTERN YOOP, INCLUDING THE MACKINAC BRIDGE. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SLUG OF 0.15-0.35" OF QPF THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.20" OF QPF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY,
WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL ICING ISSUES,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO INFRASTRUCTURAL IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE STRAITS IN PARTICULAR, WHERE IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER 0.15-0.35" OF ICING. IN ADDITION, WITH ALL OF
THIS ICING, ONE CAN'T HELP BUT WONDER WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE TO BE
HAD ON THE MACKINAC BRIDGE WITH ICING BUILDING UP ON THE CABLES OF
THE BRIDGE... SO A LOT TO DIGEST HERE. EVENTUALLY, THIS FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE STRAITS, AND MILDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO CESSATION OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR OUR FRIENDS IN THE SAULT (AND EVERYONE ELSE ALONG / N OF M-28),
THE WARM NOSE IS NOT TRENDING AS STRONG UP HERE, BUT REMAINS
PRESENT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF MAINLY SLEET TO MATERIALIZE
IN THIS AREA ONCE AGAIN... PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER HALF INCH
TO INCH OF SLEET, PROBABLY FLIPPING TO RAIN / FREEZING RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHERE THIS ZONE OF SLEET SETS UP IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY
VITAL IN DELINEATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN
HAPPENS, AS IF MORE SLEET IS INJECTED INTO THE PICTURE, ICING
POTENTIAL WILL GO DOWN.
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: AS IF ALL OF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH, WE THEN HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM... BUT NOT BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION... A BELCH OF WARMER AIR LOOKS TO SURGE DOGGONE NEAR TO THE
BRIDGE, SENDING TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S
(PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER) LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO INSTABILITY BUILDING. RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD
OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER, AS PLAIN RAIN SURGES AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS A NAUBINWAY TO
BRIMLEY LINE IN THE EASTERN YOOP. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
RAIN WILL FLIP BACK TO MIXY PRECIP... AND THEN... MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONSIDERING THERE IS STILL
GOING TO BE AMPLE MOISTURE, THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PLACES TO SNAG A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO MONDAY AS THIS
LONG DURATION WINTER EVENT COMES TO A COLD CONCLUSION. CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S, CERTAINLY THERE
IS CONCERN IF INFRASTRUCTURAL IMPACTS CAN MATERIALIZE FROM THIS
SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE INTO
THE LOWER TEENS MONDAY NIGHT. MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES FROM THIS EVENT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY, THE STRAITS, THE ISLANDS, AND THE
INTERIOR TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THRU
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THRU LOWER MICHIGAN. MIXED PRECIP...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...
IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE
MITT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS THIS
PRECIP DEVELOPS. EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TODAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-098.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR
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