299
FXUS63 KAPX 290720
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT ICE DEVELOPS ON TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH, WITH RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ON SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW AS COLD AIR BUILDS LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY
- DRY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE MESSY WINTRY MIX.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-32 TODAY...
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE CENTRAL US ROCKIES...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THRU
IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT...IMPACTING MUCH OF OUR CWA ATTM. INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS/EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS DIMINISH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
INSTABILITY WANES IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT SAGGING A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL DIMINISH OF INSTABILITY
KICKS IN. STILL...WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR AREA...
WITH LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 EXPERIENCING MIXED
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWING SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN BORDERS OF BOTH WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL DRAW THE HIGHEST QPF AND HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND UP/OVER THE WARM FRONT....
HELPING TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THRU TODAY.
PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN THE BIG ISSUE AS THAT PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE
IS MAINTAINED IN ONGOING LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. MEANWHILE... SURFACE
TEMPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA WILL STAY AROUND AND JUST BELOW
FREEZING TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME WILL
CONTINUE BUT WILL INSTEAD BE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-32 WILL REACH ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA THRU TODAY.
WILL THEREFORE EXTEND THIS HEADLINE THRU TODAY AND EXPAND IT TO
OTSEGO...MONTMORENCY AND ALPENA COUNTIES. EXPECT ALL OF THESE AREAS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE TWO TO AS MUCH AS FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE ACCUMULATION THRU TODAY. WILL LEAVE THE EXPIRATION TIME AT
15Z FOR THE ICE STORM WARNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL DROP SOUTH OF THAT AREA
THEREAFTER. WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BEAVER
ISLAND FOR LESSER ICE ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE ICE STORM WARNING AREAS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICING BORDERING THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES/EXTENSION OF HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ONCE THE LOW CENTER FINALLY
STARTS TO EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS / FORECAST SUMMARY:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL GLIDE NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY, CONTINUING A LONG AND DRAWN OUT PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT IS
CERTAINLY TRENDING ON THE IMPRESSIVE SIDE FOR THE NORTHWOODS. AMPLE
LIFT AND SATURATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION, AND EVEN
CONVECTION AT TIMES AS STABLE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON,
SUPPLIED BY COLDER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY (A STRONG
ANALOG FOR WINTRY MIX EVENTS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES, FREEING UP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM
32F TEMPS. WEAKER WARM NOSE IN THE EASTERN YOOP WILL SUPPORT SLEET /
SNOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GIVE US LIGHT AT THE END OF THE
TUNNEL LATER IN THE EVENING SUNDAY... THOUGH ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BEFORE WE TRANSITION THROUGH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION PROFILES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION
LATER MONDAY, THOUGH WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE. ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO ANOTHER PACIFIC BORNE WAVE PASSING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SUMMARY:
SUNDAY STARTS WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS... FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EVERYWHERE NORTH OF M-32...
AND WITH STEADIER COLD CONVEYOR PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN YOOP,
GENERALLY A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. EXPECTING PRECIP TO FILL IN
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. STUBBORN LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... PERHAPS NOT TO THE LEVEL THAT WE SAW TONIGHT... BUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET ALIGNS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING THAT
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER AND MOST
AREAS NORTH OF M-32 THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY SUNDAY, AS THAT 32F LINE
REFUSES TO BUDGE AMID COLDER EASTERLY FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT, ONCE
PROGGED TO SURGE TO THE STRAITS, LIKELY GETS HUNG UP RIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, THUS BRINGING ANOTHER WILD TEMPERATURE MAP,
WITH 50S AT TVC AND SW AND DOWN IN GLADWIN, AND 30S TO NEAR 40
BETWEEN M-32 AND M-72, AND LOWER 30S NORTH OF M-32. AS FAR AS
ADDITIONAL ICING GOES, CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF A
FEW TENTHS OF ICING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER...
AGAIN, WITH SOME STRUGGLING TO ACCRETE ON SURFACE SIMPLY BECAUSE THE
RAIN IS FALLING SO HARD... LATEST QPF FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY
MORNING SPITS OUT 0.75-1.75" ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, SO WE MAY BE
TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF HYDRO CONCERNS, BUT GIVEN THE GRADUAL
RATES (ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES), THESE ISSUES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MINIMAL.
MEANWHILE, NORTH OF THE BRIDGE... WITH ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
LOW TRACK, SUDDENLY THE EASTERN YOOP IS UNDER THE GUN FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE OUTBURST OF SLEET AND SNOW. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
QPF, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE MACKINAC COUNTY SNAG A FEW
INCHES OF SLEET AND CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO OBTAIN 6-10"+ OF SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THAT IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME, BUT WITH MODEL
TRENDS, IT REMAINS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY, SO THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES. THE PREVAILING
TREND IN GUIDANCE IS MORE OF A SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN
PROGRESSION AT THIS TIME, SO WILL BE OMITTING MUCH OF THE SNOW TALK
FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING. REGARDLESS, STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
IMPACTFUL EVENT FOR OUR FRIENDS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE... IT'S JUST
GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME TO DECIPHER OUT THE FORECAST CONSIDERING WE
ARE DEFINITELY WALKING A THERMODYNAMIC TIGHTROPE.
SO AFTER ALL OF THAT, WE THEN CONTEND WITH THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS,
WHICH SHOULD TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
WILL BRING ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH TIME
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN PLACES, BUT WITH THIS BEING FAR OUT ENOUGH, STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
PINPOINT WHERE THIS MAXIMUM IN PRECIPITATION WILL LAND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS LATER MONDAY, BRINGING US A PRECIP
FREE STRETCH THROUGH TUESDAY (WOOHOO!). THAT BEING SAID, THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER 20S, WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT
CONTEND WITH LONGER DURATION POWER OUTAGES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY... HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S... THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MESSY SNOW
TO RAIN TRANSITION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO VERY SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF THESE TWO STATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 EXPERIENCING SOME FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
THIS PRECIP THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
AT 15 TO 25 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
022>024.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ086>088-
095>097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR
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