739
FXUS63 KAPX 292334
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
734 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY, WITH ICE FOCUS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH WITH TIME.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTS NORTHERN LOWER AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS MONDAY. SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER WHILE MIXED PRECIP LINGERS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
ONE IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC AXIS LAYED OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS EVIDENT BY TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, WITH
READINGS STUCK IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, HELPED
ALONG BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION.
UNFORTUNATELY, FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA, SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE OF SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
USHER IN THOSE NEAR SURFACE COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH SECTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN STILL RUNNING AT OR A
TOUCH BELOW FREEZING. WARM NOSE ALOFT IS NOW SUBSTANTIAL (8C
MEASURED AT 2.4KFT ON OUR LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING), CONTINUING THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT WERE THOSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OR STILL BELOW
FREEZING.
EXPECT THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY BOW
NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ROTATING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS....WITH THIS LOW SET TO CUT RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. ROUNDS OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE, SOME
OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION (ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL) , AMOUNTS, AND HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
DETAILS:
STILL JUST ONE UNBELIEVABLY COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST,
ALL OWNING TO ULTRA SENSITIVE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE VERTICAL.
FULLY EXPECT PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CURRENT ICE STORM WARNED AREAS. ELEVATED WARM NOSE IS GOING
NOWHERE, AGAIN SETTING UP WAVES OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE THOSE
CURRENTLY WARNED AREAS. COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF ICE
OR SO BY MORNING, AND GIVING WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED, WOULD FULLY
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE IMPACTS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THOSE WARNING RIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
EXPAND NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER TONIGHT AS WHOLE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC
AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT THAT DIRECTION. ELEVATED WARM NOSE BECOMES LESS
AGGRESSIVE THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES AS WELL, SUGGESTING A MYRIAD
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH LIKELY MORE
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ON THE SOUTH END OF UPPER MICHIGAN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF M-28. ADDITIONAL MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN, WITH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES
EXPECTED. COULD EASILY SEE WARNING LEVEL FREEZING RAIN TOTALS NORTH
OFF THE MIGHTY MAC, AND WHILE SLEET/SNOW TOTALS MAY NOT JUSTIFY
WARNINGS, IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT. BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO GO AHEAD WITH WINTER STORM WARNS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY TO END ANY
FREEZING CONCERNS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF LOW PASSAGE IN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTACHED SURFACE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA BOARDER. ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
LOWER. AREAS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER HOWEVER WILL
HAVE A MUCH COOLER THERMAL PROFILE ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR/BELOW 0, RESULTING IN A QUICK BURST OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
COLD AIR EVENTUALLY BUILDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEASTERLY... DELIVERING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO A FEW AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER.
CONDITIONS STAY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE MIDWEST NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND ADVECTS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, RETURNING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE BRIDGE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PRIMARILY REMAINS WITHIN THE 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION FROM THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE CLASSIC SET UP OF LOW PRESSURE
TACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER IN THE 40S (POSSIBLY 50S) WHILE THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL HOVER NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY AS UGLY SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR WITH AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z MONDAY, BUT ROADWAY CONDITIONS WILL
STILL REMAIN POOR WITH ICY/SLUSHY BUILDUP ACROSS THE U.P FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. MEANWHILE; ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN LOWER, WITH
ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF I-75 EXPECTED TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF A
FEW TENTHS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MONDAY, MEANING ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS SHOULDN'T BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN IN TERM OF FREEZING.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS. AT THIS TIME, LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER; MEANING WEAK FRONTAL
FORCING COMPARED TO AREAS SOUTHWARD SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE FORCING
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW. AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
SEEING SOME MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND FREEZING AND COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE LOW LEVELS. QPF IS LOW AS
WELL COMPARED TO THE ONGOING BOUNDARY TODAY, WITH ROUGHLY A THIRD TO
HALF INCH EXPECTED, BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS STORM TRACK
SHIFTING WILL PRODUCE A DIFFERENT OUTCOME WITH FUTURE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MOSTLY IFR. UGLY MIXED PRECIP EVENT CONTINUES. MOSTLY JUST RAIN
FOR TVC/MBL, THOUGH MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CIGS. MOSTLY FZRA
TONIGHT AT APN/PLN, THOUGH APN SHOULD BECOME MAINLY RA SUNDAY.
IFR/LIFR CIGS THERE TOO. NO PRECIP AT CIU NOW, BUT IT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THAT AREA THIS EVENING. SN INITIALLY, THEN
TURNING TO PL AND THEN FZRA BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL
BECOME IFR TONIGHT.
BRISK EAST WINDS PERSIST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-022>024-
097>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ028>030.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR MIZ086-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ088-095-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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