517
FXUS63 KAPX 301036
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM CONTINUES INTO TODAY, WITH ICE FOCUS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH WITH TIME.
- SNOW EXITS MONDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMATIC COLD WEATHER FOR THOSE CONTINUING
TO CONTEND WITH LONGER DURATION POWER OUTAGES MONDAY NIGHT.
- NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DRIER AND MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EVENT CONTINUES INTO TODAY...WITH
MARGINALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR SOME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS REACHED IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THRU FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...WITH MUCH OF OUR CWA EXPERIENCING SOME SORT
OF MIXED PRECIP. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN THANKS TO
A VERY PRONOUNCED AND PERSISTENT WARM NOSE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS...OUR EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EVENT CONTINUES...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF
DOWNED TREES/POWERLINES/POWER OUTAGES AND VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR SW CWA WHERE TEMPS HAVE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING
THUSFAR.
AS WE HEAD INTO TODAY...SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND TRACKING THRU LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. LOW WILL THEN PUSH THRU LAKE HURON AND
SE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...REACHING FAR SW QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER DRAGGING WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
OUR CWA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES. EXPECT ANOTHER
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS AREAS UNDER AN ICE
STORM WARNING DURING THE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN HEADLINES
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THRU THE MORNING HOURS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
ANTRIM COUNTY THRU MIDDAY AS WELL. WHILE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
SWITCH OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN MIXED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THRU 00Z
MONDAY FOR THIS AREA WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
EXPECTED. SOME PLAIN RAIN MAY ALSO MIX IN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF THE "WARMER" AIR REACHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS DO SHOW SOME MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY REACHING
INTO THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS...
EXPECT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL...WITH POSSIBLY A STRONG GUST OR TWO. CAA WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. RAIN
AND MIXED PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WAA TAKING PLACE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA. CAA TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL DROP TEMPS BACK MAINLY INTO THE
20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS / FORECAST:
DEPARTING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO ONTARIO
MONDAY, DRAGGING A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LINGERING SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A DEPARTING SHOT OF SNOW THAT WILL TAPER BY
MID MORNING, WITH THE BEST SATURATION LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHERN
LOWER AND FAR EASTERN UPPER. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5" TO 1" IS POSSIBLE
(LIKELY ON THE LOW END OF THAT RANGE) BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, YIELDING A CLEARING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON) SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS TREND CALM. THIS CAN BE EXTREMELY
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREAS STILL SUFFERING FROM LONG DURATION POWER
OUTAGES... TEMPS LIKELY TANK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THOSE HARDEST HIT AREAS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LIFE-
THREATENING COLD FOR THE ELDERLY WHO DO NOT HAVE A SOURCE OF HEAT.
HIGHS TUESDAY REMAIN RATHER CHILLY... LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 30S AND
40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT... AND WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES PRECEDING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE SYSTEM, MAY
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS AN AREA THAT WILL BE WEARY FROM THIS WEEKEND'S FREEZING RAIN
EXTRAVAGANZA. THIS SETUP DOES LOOK LIKE COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE AS
STUBBORN TO HANG AROUND AS OF CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS, WITH
TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO RAIN WITH SOME THUNDER CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY. ONE
CAVEAT TO CONSIDER... JUST LIKE WITH THE ONGOING ICING EVENT...
ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RESIDING OVER NORTHWEST
QUEBEC, WHICH, AGAIN, IS AN ANALOG FOR STUBBORN COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION TO PRODUCE PROBLEMATIC WINTRY MIX EVENTS DRIVEN BY
ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP THAT STABLE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO UNPACK WITH THE SYSTEM, SO UPDATES TO BE HAD IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, TRENDS
POINT TOWARD A MORE NORMAL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES, WHICH, IN EARLY
APRIL CONSIST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH DRIER
WEATHER HOLDING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL TRACK THRU LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY AND EXIT EAST THRU SE ONTARIO TONIGHT. MIXED
PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO
PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP REMAINING MIXED ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THRU THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIP WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
E/NE SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS WILL BECOME NW LATER TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ016>018-022>024-
028>030-097>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page