903
FXUS63 KAPX 301910
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SLOP TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY (THANK
GOODNESS).
- OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COULD POSE A THREAT TO ONGOING POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW NOW MAKING STEADY
NORTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION FALLING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY TARGETING NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. ELEVATED WARM NOSE OUT OF THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE
PRIMARY WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN, ENOUGH WARMING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS TEMPERATURES
NEAR AND EXCEED FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY, STILL DEALING WITH
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM WHAT CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS A HISTORIC ICE
STORM ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FALLING ICE
AND TREES ONLY COMPLICATING THE CLEANUP PROCESS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST, CUTTING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FINALLY EXITING
STAGE RIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
ADDRESSING LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THIS NOW MULTI-DAY WINTER WEATHER
EVENT.
DETAILS:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SLEET INITIALLY BEING THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG VICINITY OF M-72
CORRIDOR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE 40S AND 50S SOUTH OF
THE LOW PASSAGE, WITH READING STUCK INTO THE 30S TO THE NORTH. STILL
APPEARS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
MORE FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE. MAY ALSO SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS "WARM" SECTOR, BUT APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH. DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT, DECAYING SOME AS IT
EVENTUALLY PIVOTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
THIS DEFORMATION SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITHIN INCREASING COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. LIKELY TO SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, WITH MOSTLY INCH OR LESS AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT DRYING WILL BE USHERED IN BY COLD AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, LIKELY HAVING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON WHAT WILL STILL LIKELY BE ICE COVERED TREES AND THOSE
WITHOUT POWER. LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S,
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER YET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING SPANNED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF NORTH
AMERICA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE NORTH WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/UPPER TEENS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. NORMALLY THIS ISN'T TOO MUCH OF A
CONCERN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN EARLY APRIL, BUT THE POTENTIAL OF
ONGOING WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES COULD LEAD TO THE INTERIORS OF
HOMES FREEZING OR EVEN EXPERIENCING BURSTED PIPES.
WEATHER ON THE OTHER HAND REMAINS QUIET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD BESIDES THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH RETURNS ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH A HALF INCH OR LESS, BUT ANY SLEET, SNOW,
OR EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
POOR ROADWAY CONDITIONS THAT WILL ONLY PROLONG THE CLEAN UP PROCESS
OF THIS HISTORIC ICING EVENT. ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN
DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT DIURNAL COOLING PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH-REZ GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER TO SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. NORMALLY, THIS ISN'T A CONCERN, BUT SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTING AREAS THAT HAVE JUST BEEN
IMPACTED BY A HISTORICAL ICE STORM. ANY HOMES THAT HAVE NOT YET TO
HAVE POWER RESTORED WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING INTERNALLY, OR EVEN PIPES BUSTING. TUESDAY REMAINS QUIET TO
CONTINUE THE CLEAN UP PROCESS WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING, FURTHER
DAMAGE COULD OCCUR IF HOMES DO NOT HAVE A SOURCE OF HEAT FOR DAYS.
ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER IN TERM OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM
WILL BE THIS WEDNESDAY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RETURNS ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS,
SLEET, RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MOST OF
NORTHERN LOWER REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING A
QUICK ROUND OF SNOW IN THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
SLEET AS A WEAK WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, FINALLY ENDING PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID RAINFALL. A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION COMBINED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CREATE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. SPC HAS PUT THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN A 15% SEVERE OUTLOOK, BUT BEST
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS INDIANA/ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION AT KCIU...SOME OF WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT ICING. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
THEN SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, BUT
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF LOCATION ON MONDAY. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
022>024-028>030-097>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095-
096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB
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