361
FXUS63 KAPX 310402
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1202 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SLOP TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY (THANK
GOODNESS).
- OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COULD POSE A THREAT TO ONGOING POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MY APOLOGIES FOR THE LAST-SECOND CHANGE OF PLANS, BUT THERE IS
TOO MUCH LINGERING FREEZING PRECIP IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI FOR
NO HEADLINES. AN ICE STORM WARNING IS OVERKILL AT THIS POINT TOO.
SO, AFTER CHATTING WITH THE INCOMING NIGHT SHIFT, AN ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL ZONES THAT WERE UNDER THE ICE STORM
WARNING. THE ADVISORY FOR ANTRIM WAS ALSO EXTENDED. THESE ARE UP
UNTIL 8AM. THIS SHOULD BE LONG ENOUGH TO GET MOST OF TONIGHT'S
LIGHT MIXED PRECIP OUT OF DODGE.
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE DID INDEED WEAKEN AS IT MOVED INTO OUR
COLD/STABLE AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE IMPACTS WERE
NOTED...
EXCEPT FOR ONE LAST MISERABLE BURST OF WINTRY PRECIP. THIS
CONTINUES TO FALL AS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE ICE STORM
WARNING AREA, THOUGH WITH TEMPS EFFECTIVELY AT FREEZING, MOST OF
THIS PRECIP IS RUNNING OFF. STILL, WE CONTINUE TO BE DOWNING
TREE LIMBS AND ENTIRE TREES AT A FAIRLY HEALTHY CLIP IN AT LEAST
THE GREATER GAYLORD AREA.
THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN
LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WE CAN
LET THE ICE STORM WARNINGS IN NORTHERN LOWER MI RUN OUT AT
11PM, THOUGH LIGHTER FREEZING PRECIP MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER,
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER. MIXED WINTER PRECIP
PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN UP. EVENTUALLY, A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP (NOW BACK IN NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN
UPPER MI) WILL SWING BACK INTO NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY, BUT AS COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IT WILL TURN TO SNOW FOR MOST BEFORE
ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 1" IN EASTERN UPPER MI, LESS
THAN THAT IN NW LOWER MI.
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NW TO N. NOT
TERRIBLY STRONG, BUT ANY INCREASE WILL EXACERBATE OUR FALLING
TREE ISSUES.
ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THIS IS A PRETTY OMINOUS PLACE TO BE SITTING, WITH A WELL-
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE WX UPSTREAM AND
APPROACHING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH,
NEVER MAKING IT AS FAR AS ALMA OR MBS. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DROP OFF TO THE LOW-MID
40S OR COOLER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT
ENJOY ENCOUNTERING THIS AIRMASS ONE LITTLE BIT. BUT IT WOULDN'T
TAKE THAT MUCH MOMENTUM TO ALLOW A SUBSTANTIAL GUST FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST AREA, GLADWIN/ARENAC COS
ESPECIALLY. IT HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY EASY TO GET STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE IN A HIGHLY STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS. LATE FRIDAY EVENING IN NW LOWER MI WAS AN
OBVIOUS EXAMPLE. BUT EVEN THE CELL THAT TRACKED ACROSS NE LOWER
MI EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED A 27KT GUST AT OSC.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW NOW MAKING STEADY
NORTHEAST PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION FALLING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY TARGETING NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. ELEVATED WARM NOSE OUT OF THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE
PRIMARY WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN, ENOUGH WARMING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS TEMPERATURES
NEAR AND EXCEED FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY, STILL DEALING WITH
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM WHAT CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS A HISTORIC ICE
STORM ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FALLING ICE
AND TREES ONLY COMPLICATING THE CLEANUP PROCESS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE NORTHEAST, CUTTING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FINALLY EXITING
STAGE RIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
ADDRESSING LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THIS NOW MULTI-DAY WINTER WEATHER
EVENT.
DETAILS:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SLEET INITIALLY BEING THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG VICINITY OF M-72
CORRIDOR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE 40S AND 50S SOUTH OF
THE LOW PASSAGE, WITH READING STUCK INTO THE 30S TO THE NORTH. STILL
APPEARS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
MORE FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE. MAY ALSO SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS "WARM" SECTOR, BUT APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH. DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT, DECAYING SOME AS IT
EVENTUALLY PIVOTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
THIS DEFORMATION SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITHIN INCREASING COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. LIKELY TO SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, WITH MOSTLY INCH OR LESS AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT DRYING WILL BE USHERED IN BY COLD AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, LIKELY HAVING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON WHAT WILL STILL LIKELY BE ICE COVERED TREES AND THOSE
WITHOUT POWER. LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S,
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER YET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING SPANNED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF NORTH
AMERICA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE NORTH WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/UPPER TEENS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. NORMALLY THIS ISN'T TOO MUCH OF A
CONCERN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN EARLY APRIL, BUT THE POTENTIAL OF
ONGOING WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES COULD LEAD TO THE INTERIORS OF
HOMES FREEZING OR EVEN EXPERIENCING BURSTED PIPES.
WEATHER ON THE OTHER HAND REMAINS QUIET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD BESIDES THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH RETURNS ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH A HALF INCH OR LESS, BUT ANY SLEET, SNOW,
OR EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
POOR ROADWAY CONDITIONS THAT WILL ONLY PROLONG THE CLEAN UP PROCESS
OF THIS HISTORIC ICING EVENT. ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN
DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT DIURNAL COOLING PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH-REZ GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER TO SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. NORMALLY, THIS ISN'T A CONCERN, BUT SUCH
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTING AREAS THAT HAVE JUST BEEN
IMPACTED BY A HISTORICAL ICE STORM. ANY HOMES THAT HAVE NOT YET TO
HAVE POWER RESTORED WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING INTERNALLY, OR EVEN PIPES BUSTING. TUESDAY REMAINS QUIET TO
CONTINUE THE CLEAN UP PROCESS WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING, FURTHER
DAMAGE COULD OCCUR IF HOMES DO NOT HAVE A SOURCE OF HEAT FOR DAYS.
ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER IN TERM OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM
WILL BE THIS WEDNESDAY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RETURNS ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS,
SLEET, RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MOST OF
NORTHERN LOWER REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING A
QUICK ROUND OF SNOW IN THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
SLEET AS A WEAK WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, FINALLY ENDING PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID RAINFALL. A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION COMBINED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CREATE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. SPC HAS PUT THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN A 15% SEVERE OUTLOOK, BUT BEST
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS INDIANA/ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CONTINUED POOR FLYING WX TONIGHT, BUT ALL SITES IMPROVE MONDAY.
DRIZZLE MBL/TVC TURNS BRIEFLY TO SNOW OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING,
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR MONDAY MORNING.
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES APN/PLN, GIVING WAY TO A TOUCH
OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS BECOME MVFR
MONDAY MORNING. NOTE THAT APN/PLN ARE BOTH IMPACTED BY POWER
OUTAGES. CIU, WINTRY MIX TONIGHT, MOSTLY PL/SN BEFORE ENDING
LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR MONDAY MORNING.
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME BLUSTERY FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
021>024-028>030-097>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ086>088-095-
096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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