316
FXUS63 KAPX 311745
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW TAPERS TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES CONFINED TO THE
SNOWBELTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES TURN SUNNIER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH TODAY, EXACERBATING IMPACTS IN
AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE CONCLUDING
ICE STORM.
- TURNING COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20
(SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS IN THE AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST
ICING).
- ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GREATEST IMPACTS
LIKELY FAVOR INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER TERRAIN EAST TO LAKE
HURON AND THE EASTERN YOOP.
- DRIER AND MILDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS EAST
INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CLEAR, BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING SUN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY A CHILLY ONE, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
AND 30S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DRIVEN CONVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD HAS PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST, WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING VIA DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE COLD
CONVEYOR OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT RETREATS. THIS
WING OF MOISTURE WILL PIVOT FROM WEST TO EAST, LEADING TO A
CESSATION OF THE ONGOING DRIZZLE / FREEZING DRIZZLE REGIME
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, AS THIS SYSTEM PRODUCES ONE LAST
SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SNOW THAT WILL
ROUGHLY FAVOR A MANISTEE TO ALPENA LINE AND POINTS NORTH, ENDING
QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, PERHAPS 2-3" NEAR WHITEFISH POINT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES AMID A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSING OVER THE REGION, WHICH WILL
ONLY EXACERBATE ISSUES ACROSS THE AREAS ABSOLUTELY HAMMERED BY
THE ICE STORM DUE TO WINDS RAMPING UP TO 10-15MPH, GUSTING TO
30MPH+ AT TIMES. SOME LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DRUM UP SOME LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW
FLOW SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INDUCE A CLEARING TREND
THAT WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE COLD... GENERALLY RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 29 TO 40 DEGREES
(WARMEST SAGINAW BAY). DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES, AREAS
THAT BREAK INTO SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME OF THAT ICING
TO BEGIN MELTING OFF SOME OF THOSE TREES AND POWER LINES.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, ANTICIPATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CALMING WINDS TO COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES
TO BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. WHILE NOT ANYWHERE NEAR RECORD
BREAKING... THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BRINGS AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING COLD
FOR THOSE MORE VULNERABLE (NO HEAT SOURCE, INFANTS, ELDERLY) AND
OTHER ISSUES (FROZEN PIPES) DURING THE NIGHT MONDAY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF LONG TERM POWER OUTAGES. ON TUESDAY... WE DO TREND
SLIGHTLY WARMER... HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WITH SUNNIER
SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS (CLOUDS INCREASE SW
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON), EXPECTING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION (THOUGH NOT A COMPLETE
TURNAROUND).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS.
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT... ALL THE WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS JAMES BAY AND INTO NW QUEBEC, SUPPLYING
PERSISTENT COLD LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
RESULT WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE ANOTHER SNOW TO WINTRY MIX TO RAIN
TRANSITION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING THIS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TO PASS OVER THE TOP OF US AGAIN, WHICH SHOULD DELIVER
A DRY SLOTTING REGIME INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD PUMP THE BREAKS ON
ANY LONG TERM ISSUES WITH ICE ACCRETION LIKE WE JUST ENDURED. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE QUICK MOVER, SO ANTICIPATING THAT
DRIER AIR BUILDS BY LATER THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE INTRUSIONS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SUMMARY:
IMPORTANT FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC SURFACE
HIGH... AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THAT IS A VERY STRONG
ANALOG FOR PROBLEMATIC MIXED PRECIP EVENTS IN OUR LITTLE CORNER OF
THE WORLD, AND THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY APPEARS TO BE OF
NO EXCEPTION. A WING OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW BUILDS FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DELIVERING AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL AT MOST (BARRING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT).
THEN, THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM PRECIPITATION BUILDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARM NOSE INTRUSION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY, SO ANTICIPATING
SOME FORM OF SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TRANSITION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DETAILS REMAIN RATHER
MURKY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS PERIOD OF MIXY PRECIPITATION LINGERS,
BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT SURE LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER (IN
PARTICULAR, THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND EASTERN UPPER WILL BE SET TO
RECEIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SLEET THAT EVENTUALLY TURNS TO FREEZING
RAIN. IN THIS MOST RECENT EVENT, ROADS LARGELY WERE ABLE TO REMAIN
ON THE WET SIDE, BUT THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE IN THIS EVENT
CONSIDERING PRECEDING SLEET AND SNOW, WHICH WILL ACT AS A COLDER
SURFACE FOR FREEZING RAIN TO BOND TO ON AREA ROADWAYS. ANTICIPATING
QUITE THE MESSY COMMUTE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS MOST AREAS PICK UP
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SLEET WITH ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO OF
FREEZING RAIN. OBVIOUSLY, THIS WILL DO NOTHING BUT EXACERBATE
ONGOING RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AGAIN. CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT TEMPERATURES SPIKE INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE
SENSITIVE AREAS (40S TO 50S SOUTH) WITH A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN
AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES LATER WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS, IT IS
PARAMOUNT TO MAKE ANY PREPARATIONS POSSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
THE MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS... ALBEIT, THE BREEZY NATURE OF
THINGS MAY POSE SOME DIFFICULTY IN RECOVERY EFFORTS THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CALM THOSE WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BOTH DAYS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S AND
50S. AFTER THIS, THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (SNOW) LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY AS A MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS
CURRENT PLUME OF MVFR PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS MIXES OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB
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