863
FXUS63 KAPX 010136
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A BIT MILDER WEATHER ON TUESDAY|
- WELL BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX LIKELY, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN,
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GREATEST IMPACTS FAVOR
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER TERRAIN EAST TO LAKE HURON AND THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA.
- DRIER AND MILDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND SOME 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT. PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN SOUTH OF
M-32, SOMEWHAT MORE EXTENSIVE DOWN BY MBL. DRIER AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WIN OUT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR. A VERY,
VERY WELCOME QUIET NIGHT IS THUS AHEAD. WE DO STILL HAVE SOME
WIND OUT THERE, AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL
UPPER MI/NE WI. BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE LAX
OVERNIGHT, AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THAT WILL GIVE TEMPS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP SHARPLY, AND IT IS ALREADY A COOL EVENING
(TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S). LOWS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE
TEENS IN EASTERN UPPER AND THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER MI,
AND LOW-MID 20S IN SOME NORTHERN LOWER COASTS. SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS MAY OCCUR IN THE COLDEST SPOTS (PLN/GOV/CIU).
THOUGH NOT RECORD-SETTING, THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH THE COLD. A
SUBSTANTIAL PART OF THE CWA HAS NO POWER, AND HASN'T FOR A
WHILE. HOMES WITHOUT A HEAT SOURCE MAY BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD,
AND FROZEN PIPES MAY ALSO BE IN ISSUE. AND THERE WILL BE FIRST
RESPONDERS/UTILITY COMPANY/ROAD COMMISSION PERSONNEL WORKING
OUTSIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE DRESS VERY WARMLY. (AND THANK YOU.)
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
LOW PRESSURE, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HISTORIC WEATHER THE LAST FEW
DAYS, NOW WELL OFF TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING AN EXTENDED AREA OF CANADA
HIGH PRESSURE TO STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL WORK
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, BRINGING A MUCH
DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT
SAME HIGH WILL BRING SOME VERY COLD WEATHER TONIGHT...A SERIOUS
CONCERN FOR THE MANY STILL WITHOUT POWER.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
DETAILS:
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT, AND COUPLED WITH WINDS BECOME
CALM/LIGHT, SETS THE STAGE FOR AN AGGRESSIVE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE. FULLY EXPECT WIDESPREAD TEENS ACROSS ALL INTERIOR AREAS,
WITH READINGS LIKELY MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN
OUR TYPICAL COLDER LOCATIONS. NORMALLY NOT A BIG DEAL TO KICK OFF
APRIL, BUT WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THE CONCERNS DEFINITELY
INCREASE. PLEASE TAKE WHATEVER PRECAUTIONS YOU CAN TO STAY WARM AND
KEEP PIPES FROM FREEZING.
MOSTLY SUNNY START ON TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM (READ ABOUT THAT IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION TO FOLLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY
RESPOND TO THAT MORNING SUN AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS, WITH READINGS
PUNCHING UP INTO THE 30S. STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT
AN IMPROVEMENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
IT'S HARD TO DESCRIBE THE MASSIVE DEVASTATION CAUSED BY THE HISTORIC
ICE STORM ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE LANDSCAPE IS FOREVER CHANGED AND IT WILL TAKE DECADES OR LONGER
FOR IT TO RETURN TO ITS NATURAL STATE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE UPCOMING
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO COOPERATE WITH CLEANUP EFFORTS OR FOR THE
PEOPLE DEVOID OF HEAT. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM INCLUDING
GUSTY WINDS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY
THIS SYTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS LONG LASTING OR AS STRONG AS THE LAST
ONE (THAT WOULD BE EXTREMELY HARD TO DO). MILDER TEMPERATURES DO
LOOK TO FINALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND POTENTIALLY YET ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE REGION DOESN'T SEEM TO BE
ABLE TO CATCH A BREAK.
PACIFIC ENERGY EMERGES OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TRACKS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST THURSDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION WELL ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW AND SLEET INTO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COINCIDES WITH A COLD EASTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INITIAL
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD AT OR AROUND FREEZING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER) DESPITE AN APPRECIABLE WARM NOSE ALOFT.
THIS SETUP USUALLY MEANS A TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
AN EARLY ESTIMATE OF UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PRECEDING SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A FARTHER
NORTHWEST TRACK AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS WOULD HOPEFULLY RESULT IN
WARMER AIR MAKING INROADS INTO MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANGING ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO PLAIN
RAIN. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY (PERHAPS
UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH). THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH
BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MILDER AIR THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S, WITH SOME 50S
LIKELY SPRINKLED IN (ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SAGINAW BAY).
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH RETURNS COOLER AIR ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXTENDED GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE DETAILS BUT
SOME MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AFFECTING THE REGION. THE TRACK OF WHICH COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH,
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE, AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NW. CIU HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT, PLN/TVC/MBL WILL DO
SO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE EVENING/
NEAR MIDNIGHT FOR APN. THEN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOTE
THAT APN AND PLN CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH POWER OUTAGES.
NW WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-
348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ
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